Markets have powered through previous crises
Market downturns are painful, but history shows they’re common. Over the long term, stocks have been resilient.
Market Volatility
Market downturns are painful, but history shows they’re common. Over the long term, stocks have been resilient.
Market downturns are painful, but history shows they’re common. Over the long term, stocks have been resilient.
Sources: Capital Group, Standard & Poor's. As of December 31, 2025. Data is indexed to 100 as of January 1, 1987, based on cumulative total returns for the S&P 500 Index. Shown on a logarithmic scale.
Sources: Capital Group, Standard & Poor's. As of December 31, 2025. Data is indexed to 100 as of January 1, 1987, based on cumulative total returns for the S&P 500 Index. Shown on a logarithmic scale.
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Past results are not predictive of results in future periods.
The market indexes are unmanaged and, therefore, have no expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
S&P 500 Index is a market capitalization-weighted index based on the results of approximately 500 widely held common stocks.
Investments are not FDIC-insured, nor are they deposits of or guaranteed by a bank or any other entity, so they may lose value.
The S&P 500 Indexes are a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates and have been licensed for use by Capital Group. Copyright © 2026 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global, and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part is prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC.
All Capital Group trademarks mentioned are owned by The Capital Group Companies, Inc., an affiliated company or fund. All other company and product names mentioned are the property of their respective companies.
Capital Client Group, Inc.
This content, developed by Capital Group, home of American Funds, should not be used as a primary basis for investment decisions and is not intended to serve as impartial investment or fiduciary advice.
© 2026 Capital Group. All rights reserved.
Sources: Capital Group, Standard & Poor's. As of December 31, 2025. Data is indexed to 100 as of January 1, 1987, based on cumulative total returns for the S&P 500 Index. Shown on a logarithmic scale.
Sources: Capital Group, Standard & Poor's. As of December 31, 2025. Data is indexed to 100 as of January 1, 1987, based on cumulative total returns for the S&P 500 Index. Shown on a logarithmic scale.
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Market downturns are painful, but history shows they’re common. Over the long term, stocks have been resilient.
Sources: Capital Group, Standard & Poor's. As of December 31, 2025. Data is indexed to 100 as of January 1, 1987, based on cumulative total returns for the S&P 500 Index. Shown on a logarithmic scale.
Sources: Capital Group, Standard & Poor's. As of December 31, 2025. Data is indexed to 100 as of January 1, 1987, based on cumulative total returns for the S&P 500 Index. Shown on a logarithmic scale.
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Past results are not predictive of results in future periods.
The market indexes are unmanaged and, therefore, have no expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
S&P 500 Index is a market capitalization-weighted index based on the results of approximately 500 widely held common stocks.
Investments are not FDIC-insured, nor are they deposits of or guaranteed by a bank or any other entity, so they may lose value.
The S&P 500 Indexes are a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates and have been licensed for use by Capital Group. Copyright © 2026 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global, and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part is prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC.
All Capital Group trademarks mentioned are owned by The Capital Group Companies, Inc., an affiliated company or fund. All other company and product names mentioned are the property of their respective companies.
Capital Client Group, Inc.
This content, developed by Capital Group, home of American Funds, should not be used as a primary basis for investment decisions and is not intended to serve as impartial investment or fiduciary advice.
© 2026 Capital Group. All rights reserved.
LONG-TERM INVESTING
Missing just the best 10 days is enough to set a $10,000 investment back nearly 48% compared to staying fully invested over a 10-year period.
Missing just the best 10 days is enough to set a $10,000 investment back nearly 48% compared to staying fully invested over a 10-year period.
Sources: Capital Group, RIMES, Standard & Poor's. As of December 31, 2025.
Sources: Capital Group, RIMES, Standard & Poor's. As of December 31, 2025.
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Past results are not predictive of results in future periods.
The market indexes are unmanaged and, therefore, have no expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
S&P 500 Index is a market capitalization‑weighted index based on the results of approximately 500 widely held common stocks.
Investments are not FDIC-insured, nor are they deposits of or guaranteed by a bank or any other entity, so they may lose value.
The S&P 500 Indexes are a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates and have been licensed for use by Capital Group. Copyright © 2026 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global, and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part is prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC.
All Capital Group trademarks mentioned are owned by The Capital Group Companies, Inc., an affiliated company or fund. All other company and product names mentioned are the property of their respective companies.
Capital Client Group, Inc.
This content, developed by Capital Group, home of American Funds, should not be used as a primary basis for investment decisions and is not intended to serve as impartial investment or fiduciary advice.
© 2026 Capital Group. All rights reserved.
Sources: Capital Group, RIMES, Standard & Poor's. As of December 31, 2025.
Sources: Capital Group, RIMES, Standard & Poor's. As of December 31, 2025.
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Missing just the best 10 days is enough to set a $10,000 investment back nearly 48% compared to staying fully invested over a 10-year period.
Sources: Capital Group, RIMES, Standard & Poor's. As of December 31, 2025.
Sources: Capital Group, RIMES, Standard & Poor's. As of December 31, 2025.
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Past results are not predictive of results in future periods.
The market indexes are unmanaged and, therefore, have no expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
S&P 500 Index is a market capitalization‑weighted index based on the results of approximately 500 widely held common stocks.
Investments are not FDIC-insured, nor are they deposits of or guaranteed by a bank or any other entity, so they may lose value.
The S&P 500 Indexes are a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates and have been licensed for use by Capital Group. Copyright © 2026 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global, and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part is prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC.
All Capital Group trademarks mentioned are owned by The Capital Group Companies, Inc., an affiliated company or fund. All other company and product names mentioned are the property of their respective companies.
Capital Client Group, Inc.
This content, developed by Capital Group, home of American Funds, should not be used as a primary basis for investment decisions and is not intended to serve as impartial investment or fiduciary advice.
© 2026 Capital Group. All rights reserved.
Elections
History shows markets strengthened once election-related uncertainty lifted.
History shows markets strengthened once election-related uncertainty lifted.
Sources: Capital Group, RIMES, Standard & Poor's. Calculations use Election Day as the starting date in all election years, and November 5th as a proxy for the starting date in other years. Only midterm election years are shown in the chart. As of December 31, 2025.
Sources: Capital Group, RIMES, Standard & Poor's. Calculations use Election Day as the starting date in all election years, and November 5th as a proxy for the starting date in other years. Only midterm election years are shown in the chart. As of December 31, 2025.
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Past results are not predictive of results in future periods.
S&P 500 Index is a market capitalization-weighted index based on the results of approximately 500 widely held common stocks.
Investments are not FDIC-insured, nor are they deposits of or guaranteed by a bank or any other entity, so they may lose value.
The S&P 500 Indexes are a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates and have been licensed for use by Capital Group. Copyright © 2026 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global, and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part is prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC.
All Capital Group trademarks mentioned are owned by The Capital Group Companies, Inc., an affiliated company or fund. All other company and product names mentioned are the property of their respective companies.
Capital Client Group, Inc.
This content, developed by Capital Group, home of American Funds, should not be used as a primary basis for investment decisions and is not intended to serve as impartial investment or fiduciary advice.
© 2026 Capital Group. All rights reserved.
Sources: Capital Group, RIMES, Standard & Poor's. Calculations use Election Day as the starting date in all election years, and November 5th as a proxy for the starting date in other years. Only midterm election years are shown in the chart. As of December 31, 2025.
Sources: Capital Group, RIMES, Standard & Poor's. Calculations use Election Day as the starting date in all election years, and November 5th as a proxy for the starting date in other years. Only midterm election years are shown in the chart. As of December 31, 2025.
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History shows markets strengthened once election-related uncertainty lifted.
Sources: Capital Group, RIMES, Standard & Poor's. Calculations use Election Day as the starting date in all election years, and November 5th as a proxy for the starting date in other years. Only midterm election years are shown in the chart. As of December 31, 2025.
Sources: Capital Group, RIMES, Standard & Poor's. Calculations use Election Day as the starting date in all election years, and November 5th as a proxy for the starting date in other years. Only midterm election years are shown in the chart. As of December 31, 2025.
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Past results are not predictive of results in future periods.
S&P 500 Index is a market capitalization-weighted index based on the results of approximately 500 widely held common stocks.
Investments are not FDIC-insured, nor are they deposits of or guaranteed by a bank or any other entity, so they may lose value.
The S&P 500 Indexes are a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates and have been licensed for use by Capital Group. Copyright © 2026 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global, and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part is prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC.
All Capital Group trademarks mentioned are owned by The Capital Group Companies, Inc., an affiliated company or fund. All other company and product names mentioned are the property of their respective companies.
Capital Client Group, Inc.
This content, developed by Capital Group, home of American Funds, should not be used as a primary basis for investment decisions and is not intended to serve as impartial investment or fiduciary advice.
© 2026 Capital Group. All rights reserved.
Global equities
Declining interest rates, government stimulus and a string of trade deals have brightened earnings estimates for 2026.
Declining interest rates, government stimulus and a string of trade deals have brightened earnings estimates for 2026.
Sources: Capital Group, FactSet, MSCI, Standard & Poor’s. Estimated annual earnings growth is represented by the mean consensus earnings per share estimates for the years ending December 2025 and 2026, respectively, across the S&P 500 Index (U.S.), the MSCI Europe Index (Europe), the MSCI Japan Index (Japan), the MSCI EM Index (Emerging markets) and MSCI China Index (China). Estimates are as of December 31, 2025.
Sources: Capital Group, FactSet, MSCI, Standard & Poor’s. Estimated annual earnings growth is represented by the mean consensus earnings per share estimates for the years ending December 2025 and 2026, respectively, across the S&P 500 Index (U.S.), the MSCI Europe Index (Europe), the MSCI Japan Index (Japan), the MSCI EM Index (Emerging markets) and MSCI China Index (China). Estimates are as of December 31, 2025.
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Past results are not predictive of results in future periods.
The market indexes are unmanaged and, therefore, have no expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
S&P 500 Index is a market capitalization-weighted index based on the results of approximately 500 widely held common stocks.
MSCI Europe Index is designed to measure developed equity market results across 15 developed countries in Europe.
MSCI Japan Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted index designed to measure the equity market results of Japan.
MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large- and mid-cap representation across 27 emerging markets (EM) countries.
MSCI China Index captures large- and mid-cap representation across China A shares, H shares, B shares, Red chips, P chips and foreign listings (e.g. ADRs).
Investments are not FDIC-insured, nor are they deposits of or guaranteed by a bank or any other entity, so they may lose value.
The S&P 500 Indexes are a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates and have been licensed for use by Capital Group. Copyright © 2026 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global, and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part is prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC.
The MSCI information may only be used for your internal use, may not be reproduced or redisseminated in any form and may not be used as a basis for or a component of any financial instruments or products or indices. None of the MSCI information is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such. Historical data and analysis should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance analysis, forecast or prediction. The MSCI information is provided on an “as is” basis and the user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. MSCI, each of its affiliates and each other person involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating any MSCI information (collectively, the “MSCI Parties”) expressly disclaims all warranties (including, without limitation, any warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, timeliness, non-infringement, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose) with respect to this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall any MSCI Party have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential (including, without limitation, lost profits) or any other damages. (www.msci.com)
All Capital Group trademarks mentioned are owned by The Capital Group Companies, Inc., an affiliated company or fund. All other company and product names mentioned are the property of their respective companies.
Capital Client Group, Inc.
This content, developed by Capital Group, home of American Funds, should not be used as a primary basis for investment decisions and is not intended to serve as impartial investment or fiduciary advice.
© 2026 Capital Group. All rights reserved.
Sources: Capital Group, FactSet, MSCI, Standard & Poor's. Estimated annual earnings growth is represented by the mean consensus earnings per share estimates for the years ending December 2025 and 2026, respectively, across the S&P 500 Index (U.S.), the MSCI Europe Index (Europe), the MSCI Japan Index (Japan), the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (Emerging markets) and MSCI China Index (China). Estimates are as of December 31, 2025.
Sources: Capital Group, FactSet, MSCI, Standard & Poor's. Estimated annual earnings growth is represented by the mean consensus earnings per share estimates for the years ending December 2025 and 2026, respectively, across the S&P 500 Index (U.S.), the MSCI Europe Index (Europe), the MSCI Japan Index (Japan), the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (Emerging markets) and MSCI China Index (China). Estimates are as of December 31, 2025.
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Declining interest rates, government stimulus and a string of trade deals have brightened earnings estimates for 2026.
Sources: Capital Group, FactSet, MSCI, Standard & Poor’s. Estimated annual earnings growth is represented by the mean consensus earnings per share estimates for the years ending December 2025 and 2026, respectively, across the S&P 500 Index (U.S.), the MSCI Europe Index (Europe), the MSCI Japan Index (Japan), the MSCI EM Index (Emerging markets) and MSCI China Index (China). Estimates are as of December 31, 2025.
Sources: Capital Group, FactSet, MSCI, Standard & Poor’s. Estimated annual earnings growth is represented by the mean consensus earnings per share estimates for the years ending December 2025 and 2026, respectively, across the S&P 500 Index (U.S.), the MSCI Europe Index (Europe), the MSCI Japan Index (Japan), the MSCI EM Index (Emerging markets) and MSCI China Index (China). Estimates are as of December 31, 2025.
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Past results are not predictive of results in future periods.
The market indexes are unmanaged and, therefore, have no expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
S&P 500 Index is a market capitalization-weighted index based on the results of approximately 500 widely held common stocks.
MSCI Europe Index is designed to measure developed equity market results across 15 developed countries in Europe.
MSCI Japan Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted index designed to measure the equity market results of Japan.
MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large- and mid-cap representation across 27 emerging markets (EM) countries.
MSCI China Index captures large- and mid-cap representation across China A shares, H shares, B shares, Red chips, P chips and foreign listings (e.g. ADRs).
Investments are not FDIC-insured, nor are they deposits of or guaranteed by a bank or any other entity, so they may lose value.
The S&P 500 Indexes are a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates and have been licensed for use by Capital Group. Copyright © 2026 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global, and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part is prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC.
The MSCI information may only be used for your internal use, may not be reproduced or redisseminated in any form and may not be used as a basis for or a component of any financial instruments or products or indices. None of the MSCI information is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such. Historical data and analysis should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance analysis, forecast or prediction. The MSCI information is provided on an “as is” basis and the user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. MSCI, each of its affiliates and each other person involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating any MSCI information (collectively, the “MSCI Parties”) expressly disclaims all warranties (including, without limitation, any warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, timeliness, non-infringement, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose) with respect to this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall any MSCI Party have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential (including, without limitation, lost profits) or any other damages. (www.msci.com)
All Capital Group trademarks mentioned are owned by The Capital Group Companies, Inc., an affiliated company or fund. All other company and product names mentioned are the property of their respective companies.
Capital Client Group, Inc.
This content, developed by Capital Group, home of American Funds, should not be used as a primary basis for investment decisions and is not intended to serve as impartial investment or fiduciary advice.
© 2026 Capital Group. All rights reserved.
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Earnings growth is driving today’s stock gains — a sharp contrast to the dot-com period when share prices far outpaced profits.
LEFT: Sources: Capital Group, Bloomberg. Data aggregates forward 12-month net income ("forward earnings") and market capitalization ("market cap") for the “Four Horsemen” of the dot-com era: Microsoft, Cisco, Intel, and Dell, four of the largest and best-performing companies of that period. Indexed to 100 on January 1, 1998. As of December 31, 2001.
RIGHT: Sources: Capital Group, Bloomberg. Data aggregates forward 12-month net income ("forward earnings") and market capitalization ("market cap") for Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta, Broadcom, Alphabet, seven of the largest AI-exposed companies. Data indexed to 100 on January 1, 2020. As of December 31, 2025.
LEFT: Sources: Capital Group, Bloomberg. Data aggregates forward 12-month net income ("forward earnings") and market capitalization ("market cap") for the “Four Horsemen” of the dot-com era: Microsoft, Cisco, Intel, and Dell, four of the largest and best-performing companies of that period. Indexed to 100 on January 1, 1998. As of December 31, 2001.
RIGHT: Sources: Capital Group, Bloomberg. Data aggregates forward 12-month net income ("forward earnings") and market capitalization ("market cap") for Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta, Broadcom, Alphabet, seven of the largest AI-exposed companies. Data indexed to 100 on January 1, 2020. As of December 31, 2025.
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Past results are not predictive of results in future periods.
Investments are not FDIC-insured, nor are they deposits of or guaranteed by a bank or any other entity, so they may lose value.
BLOOMBERG® is a trademark and service mark of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates (collectively “Bloomberg”). Bloomberg or Bloomberg’s licensors own all proprietary rights in the Bloomberg Indices. Neither Bloomberg nor Bloomberg’s licensors approves or endorses this material, or guarantees the accuracy or completeness of any information herein, or makes any warranty, express or implied, as to the results to be obtained therefrom and, to the maximum extent allowed by law, neither shall have any liability or responsibility for injury or damages arising in connection therewith.
All Capital Group trademarks mentioned are owned by The Capital Group Companies, Inc., an affiliated company or fund. All other company and product names mentioned are the property of their respective companies.
Capital Client Group, Inc.
This content, developed by Capital Group, home of American Funds, should not be used as a primary basis for investment decisions and is not intended to serve as impartial investment or fiduciary advice.
© 2026 Capital Group. All rights reserved.
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A comparison between bull and bear markets shows there is no comparison. Bull markets can run for years and deliver outsized returns for patient investors.
Sources: Capital Group, RIMES, Standard & Poor's. As of December 31, 2025. The bull market that began in 2022 is considered current as of 12/31/2025 and is not included in the "average bull market" calculations. Bear markets are peak-to-trough price declines of 20% or more in the S&P 500. Bull markets are all other periods. Returns shown on a logarithmic scale.
Sources: Capital Group, RIMES, Standard & Poor's. As of December 31, 2025. The bull market that began in 2022 is considered current as of 12/31/2025 and is not included in the "average bull market" calculations. Bear markets are peak-to-trough price declines of 20% or more in the S&P 500. Bull markets are all other periods. Returns shown on a logarithmic scale.
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Past results are not predictive of results in future periods.
The market indexes are unmanaged and, therefore, have no expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
S&P 500 Index is a market capitalization-weighted index based on the results of approximately 500 widely held common stocks.
Investments are not FDIC-insured, nor are they deposits of or guaranteed by a bank or any other entity, so they may lose value.
The S&P 500 Indexes are a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates and have been licensed for use by Capital Group. Copyright © 2026 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global, and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part is prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC.
All Capital Group trademarks mentioned are owned by The Capital Group Companies, Inc., an affiliated company or fund. All other company and product names mentioned are the property of their respective companies.
Capital Client Group, Inc.
This content, developed by Capital Group, home of American Funds, should not be used as a primary basis for investment decisions and is not intended to serve as impartial investment or fiduciary advice.
© 2026 Capital Group. All rights reserved.
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Large market downturns can be nerve-racking, but recoveries have been powerful – especially in the first year after a decline.
Sources: Capital Group, Standard & Poor's. Return figures represent cumulative total returns for the S&P 500 Index. Market downturns shown are based on the five largest declines in the S&P 500's value since 1987 (excluding dividends and/or distributions) with 100% recovery after each decline. The percentage decline is based on the index value of the unmanaged S&P 500, excluding dividends and/or distributions. As of December 31, 2025.
Sources: Capital Group, Standard & Poor's. Return figures represent cumulative total returns for the S&P 500 Index. Market downturns shown are based on the five largest declines in the S&P 500's value since 1987 (excluding dividends and/or distributions) with 100% recovery after each decline. The percentage decline is based on the index value of the unmanaged S&P 500, excluding dividends and/or distributions. As of December 31, 2025.
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Past results are not predictive of results in future periods.
The market indexes are unmanaged and, therefore, have no expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
S&P 500 Index is a market capitalization‑weighted index based on the results of approximately 500 widely held common stocks.
Investments are not FDIC-insured, nor are they deposits of or guaranteed by a bank or any other entity, so they may lose value.
The S&P 500 Indexes are a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates and have been licensed for use by Capital Group. Copyright © 2026 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global, and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part is prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC.
All Capital Group trademarks mentioned are owned by The Capital Group Companies, Inc., an affiliated company or fund. All other company and product names mentioned are the property of their respective companies.
Capital Client Group, Inc.
This content, developed by Capital Group, home of American Funds, should not be used as a primary basis for investment decisions and is not intended to serve as impartial investment or fiduciary advice.
© 2026 Capital Group. All rights reserved.
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Lower interest rates are a tailwind for housing and the broader economy.
Sources: Capital Group, Bloomberg, Morningstar, MSCI, Standard & Poor’s. Returns reflect annualized total returns from the peak federal funds rate target to the lowest federal funds rate target for each cycle. Specific non-recessionary cutting cycles include: August 1984-August 1986, February 1995-January 1996, March 1997-November 1998. Recessionary cutting cycles include: May 1989-September 1992, May 2000-June 2003, June 2006-December 2008 and December 2018-March 2020. Benchmarks used are the S&P 500 Index (U.S. stocks), MSCI World ex USA Index (international stocks), Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index (U.S. bonds) and 3-month U.S. Treasury Bills (cash). As of December 31, 2025.
Sources: Capital Group, Bloomberg, Morningstar, MSCI, Standard & Poor’s. Returns reflect annualized total returns from the peak federal funds rate target to the lowest federal funds rate target for each cycle. Specific non-recessionary cutting cycles include: August 1984-August 1986, February 1995-January 1996, March 1997-November 1998. Recessionary cutting cycles include: May 1989-September 1992, May 2000-June 2003, June 2006-December 2008 and December 2018-March 2020. Benchmarks used are the S&P 500 Index (U.S. stocks), MSCI World ex USA Index (international stocks), Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index (U.S. bonds) and 3-month U.S. Treasury Bills (cash). As of December 31, 2025.
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Past results are not predictive of results in future periods.
The market indexes are unmanaged and, therefore, have no expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index represents the U.S. investment-grade fixed-rate bond market.
Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bill 1-3 Months Index tracks the market for Treasury bills with 1 to 3 months to maturity issued by the U.S. government.
MSCI World ex USA Index is designed to measure equity market results of developed markets.
S&P 500 Index is a market capitalization-weighted index based on the results of approximately 500 widely held common stocks.
Investments are not FDIC-insured, nor are they deposits of or guaranteed by a bank or any other entity, so they may lose value.
BLOOMBERG® is a trademark and service mark of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates (collectively “Bloomberg”). Bloomberg or Bloomberg’s licensors own all proprietary rights in the Bloomberg Indices. Neither Bloomberg nor Bloomberg’s licensors approves or endorses this material, or guarantees the accuracy or completeness of any information herein, or makes any warranty, express or implied, as to the results to be obtained therefrom and, to the maximum extent allowed by law, neither shall have any liability or responsibility for injury or damages arising in connection therewith.
© 2026 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The MSCI information may only be used for your internal use, may not be reproduced or redisseminated in any form and may not be used as a basis for or a component of any financial instruments or products or indices. None of the MSCI information is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such. Historical data and analysis should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance analysis, forecast or prediction. The MSCI information is provided on an “as is” basis and the user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. MSCI, each of its affiliates and each other person involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating any MSCI information (collectively, the “MSCI Parties”) expressly disclaims all warranties (including, without limitation, any warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, timeliness, non-infringement, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose) with respect to this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall any MSCI Party have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential (including, without limitation, lost profits) or any other damages.(www.msci.com)
The S&P 500 Indexes are a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates and have been licensed for use by Capital Group. Copyright © 2026 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global, and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part is prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC.
All Capital Group trademarks mentioned are owned by The Capital Group Companies, Inc., an affiliated company or fund. All other company and product names mentioned are the property of their respective companies.
Capital Client Group, Inc.
This content, developed by Capital Group, home of American Funds, should not be used as a primary basis for investment decisions and is not intended to serve as impartial investment or fiduciary advice.
© 2026 Capital Group. All rights reserved.
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Since 1931, midterm years have started with volatile S&P 500 returns, with stocks often climbing as the election nears.
Sources: Capital Group, RIMES, Standard & Poor’s. The chart shows the average trajectory of cumulative price returns for the S&P 500 Index throughout midterm election years compared to non-midterm election years. Each point on the lines represents the average year-to-date return as of that particular month and day, and is calculated using daily price returns from January 1, 1931 to December 31, 2025.
Sources: Capital Group, RIMES, Standard & Poor’s. The chart shows the average trajectory of cumulative price returns for the S&P 500 Index throughout midterm election years compared to non-midterm election years. Each point on the lines represents the average year-to-date return as of that particular month and day, and is calculated using daily price returns from January 1, 1931 to December 31, 2025.
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Past results are not predictive of results in future periods.
The market indexes are unmanaged and, therefore, have no expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
S&P 500 Index is a market capitalization-weighted index based on the results of approximately 500 widely held common stocks.
Investments are not FDIC-insured, nor are they deposits of or guaranteed by a bank or any other entity, so they may lose value.
The S&P 500 Indexes are a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates and have been licensed for use by Capital Group. Copyright © 2026 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global, and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part is prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC.
All Capital Group trademarks mentioned are owned by The Capital Group Companies, Inc., an affiliated company or fund. All other company and product names mentioned are the property of their respective companies.
Capital Client Group, Inc.
This content, developed by Capital Group, home of American Funds, should not be used as a primary basis for investment decisions and is not intended to serve as impartial investment or fiduciary advice.
© 2026 Capital Group. All rights reserved.
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Decades of market data show stocks climbing through Democratic and Republican administrations alike.
Sources: Capital Group, RIMES, Standard & Poor's. Dates of party control are based on inauguration dates. Values are based on total returns in USD. As of December 31, 2025.
Sources: Capital Group, RIMES, Standard & Poor's. Dates of party control are based on inauguration dates. Values are based on total returns in USD. As of December 31, 2025.
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Past results are not predictive of results in future periods.
The market indexes are unmanaged and, therefore, have no expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
S&P 500 Index is a market capitalization-weighted index based on the results of approximately 500 widely held common stocks.
Investments are not FDIC-insured, nor are they deposits of or guaranteed by a bank or any other entity, so they may lose value.
The S&P 500 Indexes are a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates and have been licensed for use by Capital Group. Copyright © 2026 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global, and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part is prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC.
All Capital Group trademarks mentioned are owned by The Capital Group Companies, Inc., an affiliated company or fund. All other company and product names mentioned are the property of their respective companies.
Capital Client Group, Inc.
This content, developed by Capital Group, home of American Funds, should not be used as a primary basis for investment decisions and is not intended to serve as impartial investment or fiduciary advice.
© 2026 Capital Group. All rights reserved.
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Time and again, new tech proved far more transformative than investors expected, but it took years.
Examples of megatrends and forecasted vs. actual adoption rates
Sources: Morgan Stanley AI Guidebook: Fourth Edition, January 23, 2024; Next Move Strategy Consulting, Statista. Initial forecast dates were February 1996 for PC and internet users; January 2010 for smartphone shipments; March 2017 for cloud revenue; and January 2023 for AI market size.
Examples of megatrends and forecasted vs. actual adoption rates
Sources: Morgan Stanley AI Guidebook: Fourth Edition, January 23, 2024; Next Move Strategy Consulting, Statista. Initial forecast dates were February 1996 for PC and internet users; January 2010 for smartphone shipments; March 2017 for cloud revenue; and January 2023 for AI market size.
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Investments are not FDIC-insured, nor are they deposits of or guaranteed by a bank or any other entity, so they may lose value.
All Capital Group trademarks mentioned are owned by The Capital Group Companies, Inc., an affiliated company or fund. All other company and product names mentioned are the property of their respective companies.
Capital Client Group, Inc.
This content, developed by Capital Group, home of American Funds, should not be used as a primary basis for investment decisions and is not intended to serve as impartial investment or fiduciary advice.
© 2026 Capital Group. All rights reserved.
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AI spending is now outpacing the dot-com era, signaling a new phase of accelerated innovation.
Sources: Capital Group, U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Haver Analytics. Latest data available is through Q3-2025 as of December 31, 2025.
Sources: Capital Group, U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Haver Analytics. Latest data available is through Q3-2025 as of December 31, 2025.
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Investments are not FDIC-insured, nor are they deposits of or guaranteed by a bank or any other entity, so they may lose value.
All Capital Group trademarks mentioned are owned by The Capital Group Companies, Inc., an affiliated company or fund. All other company and product names mentioned are the property of their respective companies.
Capital Client Group, Inc.
This content, developed by Capital Group, home of American Funds, should not be used as a primary basis for investment decisions and is not intended to serve as impartial investment or fiduciary advice.
© 2026 Capital Group. All rights reserved.
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U.S. and international markets have taken turns leading for decades, rising and falling in long-running cycles. Dollar weakness has often aided international stocks.
Sources: Capital Group, MSCI, Standard & Poor's. Relative returns are measured on an annualized rolling 5-year total return basis in USD. As of December 31, 2025.
Sources: Capital Group, MSCI, Standard & Poor's. Relative returns are measured on an annualized rolling 5-year total return basis in USD. As of December 31, 2025.
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Past results are not predictive of results in future periods.
The market indexes are unmanaged and, therefore, have no expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) Index is a free float‑adjusted market capitalization‑weighted index designed to measure developed equity market results, excluding the United States and Canada.
S&P 500 Index is a market capitalization‑weighted index based on the results of approximately 500 widely held common stocks.
U.S. Dollar Index is a measure of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to the value of a basket of currencies of the majority of the U.S.'s most significant trading partners.
Investments are not FDIC-insured, nor are they deposits of or guaranteed by a bank or any other entity, so they may lose value.
The S&P 500 Indexes are a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates and have been licensed for use by Capital Group. Copyright © 2026 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global, and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part is prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC.
The MSCI information may only be used for your internal use, may not be reproduced or redisseminated in any form and may not be used as a basis for or a component of any financial instruments or products or indices. None of the MSCI information is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such. Historical data and analysis should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance analysis, forecast or prediction. The MSCI information is provided on an 'as is' basis and the user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. MSCI, each of its affiliates and each other person involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating any MSCI information (collectively, the 'MSCI Parties') expressly disclaims all warranties (including, without limitation, any warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, timeliness, non-infringement, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose) with respect to this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall any MSCI Party have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential (including, without limitation, lost profits) or any other damages.
All Capital Group trademarks mentioned are owned by The Capital Group Companies, Inc., an affiliated company or fund. All other company and product names mentioned are the property of their respective companies.
Capital Client Group, Inc.
This content, developed by Capital Group, home of American Funds, should not be used as a primary basis for investment decisions and is not intended to serve as impartial investment or fiduciary advice.
© 2026 Capital Group. All rights reserved.
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