2024 Investment Outlook

Our latest Outlook report offers actionable insights into global markets


Economic outlook: A mixed picture for global growth in 2024

Capital Group economists forecast a mixed global economic environment in 2024. The United States, Japan and India are predicted to hold up well. Meanwhile, signs of weakness in Europe and China have tempered expectations for the new year.

The image shows a line chart with standard economic cycle categories — recovery, expansion, contraction — for eight major economies. Circles at various points on the line represent Japan, India, Canada and the U.S. in the mid- to late- expansion category, China entering contraction, and the U.K., the Eurozone and Germany in contraction.

Source: Capital Group. Country positions within the business cycle are forward-looking estimates by Capital Group economists as of October 2023. The size of the bubbles are used to approximate the relative size of each economy and are for illustrative purposes only.


Fed watch: Is inflation under control yet?

Asset Allocation

As rate hikes near end, historic investor opportunity may begin


Why the U.S. recession may have already begun


2024 Outlook webinar

CE credit available


Stock market outlook: It's time for diversification

Corporate earnings are expected to rebound in 2024, but with U.S. stock market concentration at historic levels, diversification remains essential. Find out where our investment team is looking for opportunities in the U.S. and international markets.

"It's difficult to know when a cycle will turn, so I seek to build all-weather portfolios that include companies with growth potential and defensive characteristics."

Diana Wagner, equity portfolio manager

U.S. Equities

Risks of bad breadth: Market concentration in 5 charts


Making the case for international equities

Technology & Innovation

AI and the new megacycle for tech


Think all the best stocks are in the U.S.? Think again


Bond outlook: End of historic Fed hikes ushers in optimism

The U.S. Federal Reserve may have finally finished raising interest rates. And with yields across bond markets near 20-year highs, bonds could be the comeback story of 2024.

The bar chart depicts the latest yield (as of November 30, 2023) as a percentage of the 20-year range for the following bond sectors: U.S. mortgage-backed securities, U.S. investment grade and global investment grade. For mortgage-backed securities the yield was 5.26%, which is in the 84th percentile. For U.S. investment grade the yield was 5.60%, which is in the 83rd percentile. For global investment grade the yield was 5.23%, which is in the 86th percentile.

Sources: Capital Group, Bloomberg Index Services Ltd. Indexes used are the Bloomberg U.S. MBS: Agency Fixed Rate MBS Index (U.S. mortgage-backed securities), Bloomberg U.S. Corporate Investment Grade Index (U.S. investment grade) and the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Corporate Index (global investment grade). Includes daily yields for the 20-year period ending November 30, 2023. Past results are not predictive of results in future periods. Investment grade bonds are rated BBB/Baa and above.

Portfolio construction

How to use bonds to seek balance as Fed hikes wind down


4 high-income seeking investment strategies for a high-rate world


Mortgage-backed securities: Cloud of uncertainty presents opportunity


Don't wait for a Fed rate cut: This chart shows why

Get the 2024 Outlook report

Long-term perspective on markets and economies

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*Source: Marketing Support: The Advisor View, May 2023, July 2021, June 2020; Fund Intelligence, February 2020. FUSE Research surveys of 500-1,000 advisors identifying the “most-read thought leaders.” Survey was not conducted in 2022.

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Bond ratings, which typically range from AAA/Aaa (highest) to D (lowest), are assigned by credit rating agencies such as Standard & Poor's, Moody's and/or Fitch, as an indication of an issuer's creditworthiness.

The market indexes are unmanaged and, therefore, have no expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.

Bloomberg U.S. Mortgage Backed Securities Index is a market value-weighted index that covers the mortgage-backed pass-through securities of Ginnie Mae (GNMA), Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FHLMC).

Bloomberg U.S. Corporate Investment Grade Index represents the universe of investment grade, publicly issued U.S. corporate and specified foreign debentures and secured notes that meet the specified maturity, liquidity and quality requirements.

Bloomberg Global Aggregate Corporate Index is a flagship measure of global investment-grade, fixed-rate corporate debt.

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