Portfolio Construction Time to get more active?

Four key takeaways from our latest Advisor Portfolio Insights report

5 MIN ARTICLE

Managing downside risk is arguably even more important in today’s environment given the heightened level of economic uncertainty. U.S. equity markets have climbed amid high valuations, historically tight credit spreads and uncertain economic data. Meanwhile, U.S. passive indexes have become ever more concentrated in the “Magnificent 7.” Are advisors’ portfolios positioned to manage these risks while still pursuing growth?

 

Our analysis of nearly 1,200 actual advisor portfolios for the quarter ending September 30, 2025, suggests that portfolios may have too much passive U.S. equity exposure, leaving them vulnerable to greater volatility and market downturns, while also missing out on potential opportunities to diversify both internationally and into other assets. Here are four trends we observed that argue for taking a more active posture in portfolios:

 

(The “Magnificent 7” are seven high-performing technology stocks comprised of: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla.)

1. Does your U.S. equity exposure carry too big a risk for your portfolio?

 

“The average advisor portfolio’s passive allocation is near its highest level since 20211. One-fifth of average advisor assets are in passive U.S. equity strategies2, leaving investors vulnerable to potential pullbacks in concentrated market indexes,” says Mark Barile, manager of the Capital Group Portfolio Consulting and Analytics team.

 

“Over the past few years, passive U.S. equity exposure has increased in the portfolios we analyze and concentration risk is most notable when various passive equity solutions are paired together,” Barile says. 

 

The rise in concentration risk is due to the continued appreciation of a handful of names in market-cap-weighted U.S. indexes, primarily in the information technology and consumer discretionary sectors. Nearly 39% of the S&P 500’s market cap was in just 10 companies as of September 30, 2025.

“Over the past few years, passive U.S. equity exposure has increased in the portfolios we analyze and concentration risk is most notable when various passive equity solutions are paired together.” 

- Mark Barile, manager of the Capital Group Portfolio Consulting and Analytics team  

Persistently high stock concentration in major U.S. equity market indexes

Market capitalization in top 10 companies as of 9/30/2025 (%)

Chart depicting equity concentration in the top 10 companies of the S&P 500 Index and Russell 1000 Growth Index and the average equity concentration in the top 10 companies for the S&P 500 Index and Russell 1000 Growth Index. The chart shows an increase in the concentrations in both the S&P 500 Index and the Russell 1000 Growth Index, with the current concentration equaling 38.9% in the S&P 500 Index and 61.0% in the Russell 1000 Growth Index. The average for the S&P 500 Index is 22.3% and the average for the Russell 1000 Growth Index is 32.1%.

Source: Capital Group, Morningstar, MSCI, S&P Global Ratings. As of 9/30/2025. Figures represent the sum of the top 10 largest holdings of each index on a monthly basis. Past results are not predictive of results in future periods. The indexes are unmanaged and, therefore, have no expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.

“We help advisors quantify their concentration risk and help them pursue a broader and more flexible range of growth opportunities,” Barile adds.

Nearly half of the average advisor's U.S. equity is passive

Active/passive U.S. equity/non-U.S. equity split in average advisor portfolio

Chart depicting percentage of the active-passive split in US equity/non-US equity in the average advisor portfolio. In the US, 47% are passive while 53% are active. In non-US 29% are passive and 71% are active.

Source: Capital Group. Capital Group Portfolio Consulting and Analytics team as of September 30, 2025. 

2. Are you missing opportunities to diversify with non-U.S. equities?

 

We found that interest among advisors in non-U.S. equity is rising from a multi-year low as they seek an expanded opportunity set for returns and diversification. 

 

This trend is reflected in Morningstar data, as U.S. equity categories saw fund net outflows and international equities experienced inflows on a year-to-date basis as of September 30, 2025.

 

“Foreign large blend dominated international equity inflows as advisors appeared to recognize the potential for a longer-term comeback in non-U.S. markets,” says Head of Wealth Solutions Jan Gundersen. “There are reasons to see this rally as sustainable: Bold fiscal stimulus, rising European defense spending, corporate governance reform in Asia, a shift in the regulatory mindset and broader unity in Europe,” Gundersen adds.

Non-U.S. equity allocations appear to be picking up from multi-year lows

Average advisor portfolio in non-U.S. equity based on Morningstar allocation categories in %

Chart depicting the current and the highest and lowest non-US equity allocations in the average advisor portfolio since 2021. The current non-US equity allocation is 22% as of September 30, 2025. The highest non-US equity was 27% in March 2021. The lowest non-US equity allocation was 20% in March, 2025.

Source: Capital Group Portfolio Consulting and Analytics team.

Another positive factor: Non-U.S. companies with significant revenue exposure outside the U.S. may be less affected by U.S. tariffs. A weaker U.S. dollar is another potential tailwind. When foreign currencies strengthen, they convert to a greater number of dollars for U.S.-based investors when those gains are brought back home.

Non-U.S. stocks have done well, yet valuations remain reasonable

Cumulative year-to-date returns (%)

Chart depicting percentage year-to-date cumulative returns, as of September 30, 2025, of the MSCI Europe Banks Index, the DAX Index (Germany), the MSCI ACWI ex-USA Index, the Magnificent 7 stocks and the S&P 500 Index. The year-to-date percentage price return for the MSCI Europe Banks Index is 72.50% and the average one-year forward price-to-earnings ratio is 9.9x. The year-to-date percentage price return for the DAX Index (Germany) is 34.98% the average one-year forward price-to-earnings ratio is 16.6x. The year-to-date percentage price return for the MSCI ACWI ex-USA Index is 26.02%, the average one-year forward price-to-earnings ratio is 16.0x. The year-to-date percentage price return for the Magnificent 7 stocks is 21.26%, the average one-year forward price-to-earnings ratio is 35.6x. The year-to-date percentage price return for the S&P 500 Index is 14.83%, the average one-year forward price-to-earnings ratio is 25.0x.

Sources: Capital Group, FactSet, Morningstar. P/E = price-to-earnings. Mag 7 = Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA and Tesla. Data from 1/1/25 to 9/30/25. P/E ratio for Mag 7 is equal-weighted and reflects average P/E ratios across listed companies. The P/E ratio for the S&P 500 Index, MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) ex USA Index and DAX Index are market-cap weighted. The average forward year (FY1) price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is computed by dividing the stock price by the consensus earnings estimates for 2025. Past results are not predictive of results in future periods. The indexes are unmanaged and, therefore, have no expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.

“There are reasons to see this rally as sustainable: Bold fiscal stimulus, rising European defense spending, corporate governance reform in Asia, a shift in the regulatory mindset and broader unity in Europe.”

- Jan Gundersen, head of Wealth Solutions

3. Can dividend allocations help give your portfolio downside resilience?

 

One area of potential opportunity for a greater active posture might be found with dividend payers, which offer attractive valuations as well as potentially providing some measure of downside resilience. “More than one-fifth of the average advisor portfolio allocates to stocks paying no dividends, which can contribute to higher levels of volatility,” says Barile. “Increasing exposure to dividend payers could help to reduce that volatility, as historically they have held up better in market downturns than non-payers,” he adds. 

Average monthly excess return when the S&P 500 declined

Arithmetic average of monthly excess returns (bps) for 20 years ended September 30, 2025

Chart depicting the average monthly excess return in months when the S&P 500 declined. The bar chart depicts the arithmetic average of monthly excess return in basis points for 20 years ended September 30, 2025 for the MSCI USA High Dividend Yield Index, the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index, the Russell 1000 Growth Index and the Russell 1000 Value Index. The value for the MSCI USA High Dividend Yield Index is 60 basis points. The value for the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index is 67 basis points. The value for the Russell 1000 Growth Index is 5 basis points and the value for the Russell 1000 Value Index is negative 21 basis points.

Source: Morningstar. The numbers represent the average of each index’s monthly cumulative excess returns (in basis points) relative to the S&P 500 Index for only those months in which the S&P 500’s return was negative. Past results are not predictive of results in future periods. The indexes are unmanaged and, therefore, have no expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.

“More than one-fifth of the average advisor portfolio allocates to stocks paying no dividends, which can contribute to higher levels of volatility.”

- Mark Barile

4. Have you considered expanding the sources of fixed income return potential to help manage equity risk?

 

 “Advisors haven’t forgotten the role fixed income plays to diversify equity risk.  The market drawdown in early 2025 demonstrated the diversification benefits of core bonds.  Declining correlations and high starting yields have accelerated interest,” Barile says. 

Total net fund flows ($B)

As of 9/30/2025

Chart depicting the total net fund flows as September 30, 2025 for US Equity, International Equity, Taxable Bonds and Municipal bonds. The total net fund flows for US Equity were negative $51.8 billion. The total net fund flows for International Equity were $18.4 billion. The total net fund flows for Taxable Bonds were $185.0 billion. The total net fund flows for Municipal bonds were $21.4 billion.

Source: Morningstar. Data include open-end mutual funds and ETFs.

Results so far in 2025 have demonstrated fixed income’s potential to hold up well in down equity markets. In addition, fixed income continues to offer compelling yield. Besides providing diversification, fixed income may also generate stronger returns if the U.S. economy falters and provokes accelerated rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve. 

Bonds appear to have resumed their ability to provide diversification during equity selloffs

Average returns (%)

Chart depicting the average percentage return of the S&P 500 Index compares to the Bloomberg US Aggregate. Between 2010 and 2021, the S&P 500 Index returned an average of negative 17.4% while the Bloomberg US Aggregate returned 1.4%. Between 2022 and 2023, the S&P 500 Index returned an average of negative 17.2% while the Bloomberg US Aggregate returned -9.4%. In 2025, the S&P 500 Index returned an average of negative 18.7% while the Bloomberg US Aggregate returned 1.0%.

Sources: Capital Group, Morningstar, Bloomberg. Data as of 9/30/25. For equity correction periods in 2010–2023, figures were calculated by using the average cumulative returns of the indexes during the nine equity market correction periods since 2010. Corrections are based on price declines of 10% or more (without dividends reinvested) in the unmanaged S&P 500 with at least 75% recovery. The cumulative returns are based on total returns. Ranges of returns for the equity corrections measured: S&P 500 Index: -34% to -10%; Bloomberg U.S.

 

Aggregate Index: -14% to 5%. The most recent correction shown began on 2/19/25 and remains ongoing. Past results are not predictive of results in future periods. The indexes are unmanaged and, therefore, have no expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.

Investors looking to de-risk portfolios might consider moving a portion of the equity exposure to multi-sector income strategies to help expand potential sources of fixed income return. An active multi-sector strategy can invest in a wider range of high-income-producing asset classes than core or credit funds — while striving to balance interest rate and credit spread risk. 

Short-term, core and municipal bonds have had strong returns versus cash-like alternatives amid rate cuts

Annualized average monthly returns (%) by Fed rate activity period

Chart depicting the annualized average monthly percentage returns by Federal Reserve activity period for Money Market, Bloomberg US Government/Credit (1-3 year) Index, Bloomberg US Aggregate Index and Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index. During Federal Reserve cutting periods, Money Market returned 4.7%, Bloomberg US Government/Credit (1-3 year) Index returned 8.7%, Bloomberg US Aggregate Index returned 11.5% and Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index returned 8.9%. During Federal Reserve steady periods, Money Market returned 2.4%, Bloomberg US Government/Credit (1-3 year) Index returned 3.6%, Bloomberg US Aggregate Index returned 5.6% and Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index returned 6.4%. During Federal Reserve hiking periods, Money Market returned 4.1%, Bloomberg US Government/Credit (1-3 year) Index returned 2.8%, Bloomberg US Aggregate Index returned 2.1% and Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index returned 2.5%.

Sources: Capital Group, Bloomberg, Morningstar. Data as of 9/30/25. Cycle period returns shown are annualized average monthly returns for all months in each ongoing cycle period. Data begins in March 1984, the beginning of the oldest cycle period to provide a full 40 years of data. A cycle period is defined as Fed rate action changing and persisting for three months or more, with pauses noted when there was an inflection point of rate peak or trough that hit in the prior period. Money market is represented by 1–3 month Treasury bills. Past results are not predictive of results in future periods. The indexes are unmanaged and, therefore, have no expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.

“Advisors haven’t forgotten the role fixed income plays to diversify equity risk.  The market drawdown in early 2025 demonstrated the diversification benefits of core bonds.  Declining correlations and high starting yields have accelerated interest.” 

- Mark Barile

Want to talk about how to get more active?

Mark Barile is senior manager of Capital Group's Portfolio Consulting and Analytics team. He has 19 years of investment industry experience (as of 12/31/2024). He holds a bachelor's degree in studio art from Trinity University. He also holds the Certified Investment Management Analyst® designation.

Jan Gundersen is the head of Wealth Solutions at Capital Group. He has 26 years of investment industry experience (as of 12/31/24). He holds a bachelor’s degree in geology from Colgate University and a masters degree in oceanography from Texas A&M University.

1. Since the Capital Group Portfolio Consulting and Analytics team began consulting with advisors in 2021. 

 

2. Source: The asset class breakdown of the 66% active/34% passive split in the average advisor portfolio is based on the team’s analysis of 3,901 portfolios year to date through 9/30/25: 20% passive U.S. equity, 4% passive international equity, 25% taxable bonds, 4% municipal bonds, 23% in active U.S. equity, 10% active international equity and 12% other. Other includes nontraditional equity, alternatives, commodities, miscellaneous, allocation and sector equity. The 35% passive allocation in March 2024 — the highest since a starting point of March 2021 — is based on the aggregate exposure of 1,402 advisor portfolios analyzed by the team, while the passive exposure of 21% in June 2021 — the lowest since March 2021 — is based on 542 advisor portfolios. September 30, 2025 statistic is based on analysis of 1,184 portfolios.

 

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