Equity Market Commentary Q3

Equity markets advance amid shifting leadership


Key takeaways for the quarter ended September 30, 2026:
 

  • Equity markets advanced in Q3 2026, but market leaders rapidly shifted from an energy-related rally early in the quarter to an AI-related rally more recently.
  • Breadth declined as the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index fell, producing a narrow, whipsawing environment.
  • Most of our equity-focused mutual funds and ETFs trailed their benchmarks in the quarter and for the 1-year period, while peer-relative results were comparatively more favorable in the trailing 1-year period.

 

Global equity markets advanced modestly in the third quarter, but the headline results concealed rapidly changing market leadership. Artificial intelligence remained a pervasive theme, but leaders rotated. The third quarter saw some of the highest returning companies of recent quarters take a breather — memory chipmaker SK hynix fell 23.3% in the third quarter after gaining 224.7% in the second quarter.

Markets also whipsawed within the quarter. In July, an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East boosted energy-related equities while semiconductor companies sold off. In August, those dynamics began to shift from energy toward AI-aligned tech.

Amid the volatility, the S&P 500 Index gained 2.3%, leading the MSCI Europe, Australasia, Far East (EAFE) Index (up 0.8%), the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) ex USA (up 0.5%) and the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index (down 0.4%). Small- and mid-cap companies were the weakest part of the U.S. market, with the Russell 2500 Index selling off in the quarter (down 6.4%). The MSCI ACWI Momentum Index dominated markets year to date (YTD), despite easing a bit in the third quarter. Breadth compressed, and the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index fell by about 1.9% in the quarter.

Value indexes continued to beat growth indexes globally. The Russell 1000 Value Index gained about 2.6% in the quarter and 19.3% YTD, while the Russell 1000 Growth Index gained 0.9% in the quarter and 6.3% YTD. Internationally, the MSCI ACWI ex USA Value Index beat the MSCI ACWI ex USA Growth Index by nearly 600 basis points (bps) in the quarter and nearly 850 bps YTD.

The rotation to value has spread to the U.S. in 2026

Line chart shows the cumulative total return of the Russell 1000 Value Index versus the Russell 1000 Growth Index from December 31, 2025, through September 30, 2026. From the beginning of the year, the value index outpaces the growth index, which starts the year in negative territory dipping to a low of around -10% in March. Although the growth index recovers, the value index continues to outpace it, ending at around 20% cumulative total return versus the growth index’s roughly 6% cumulative total return.



Sources: Capital Group, LSEG. As of September 30, 2026.

Equity-focused funds

As diversified managers with a long-term focus, the funds behaved as expected in an environment of whipsawing leadership. The Capital SystemTM, while allowing for flexibility, typically emphasizes longer term conviction more than chasing short-term market movements. In this challenging environment, most of our funds lagged their benchmarks in the quarter and 1-year period. However, in the trailing 1-year, 43% of our equity-focused mutual funds at Class F-2 shares and ETFs at net asset value (16 of 37 funds) remained ahead of their Morningstar peer group average.

In a value-led quarter where market concentration increased, our U.S. growth funds trailed the S&P 500 Index and the Russell 1000 Growth Index.

  • The Growth Fund of America® gained approximately 0.4% and trailed the S&P 500 by 194 bps, while slightly lagging the Russell 1000 Growth Index. Smaller positions in energy and the largest technology companies detracted.
  • CGGR – Capital Group Growth ETF advanced approximately 0.5% and trailed the S&P 500 by 179 bps, helped by stock selection in the communication services sector. Stock selection within information technology detracted.
  • CGMM – Capital Group U.S. Small and Mid Cap ETF declined in the quarter by 6.1% but held up better than the Russell 2500, in part due to security selection within the capital markets industry. Stock selection and industry selection within oil, gas & consumable fuels was a detractor.
  • Globally, CGGO – Capital Group Global Growth Equity ETF fell roughly 5.8% in the quarter, as the semiconductor companies that powered strong results in Q2 turned into a headwind in Q3. Down by 736 bps against the MSCI ACWI during the quarter, the fund remained ahead of the index by 180 bps YTD and was ranked in the top quartile against peers on a 1-year basis.
  • New Perspective Fund® was roughly flat over the quarter in absolute terms. While it lagged the MSCI ACWI by 179 bps amid a global value rally, it remained ranked in the top two quartiles against peers for the 1-year, 5-year and 10-year trailing periods.
     

Against the Russell 1000 Value Index, our quality-oriented dividend funds struggled to keep pace with a rally led by a mix of deeper value, lower quality and cyclical stocks. Several of our more conservative growth and income funds are not structured to hold some of today’s growth-oriented market leaders, many of which may not meet dividend or profitability requirements.

  • American Mutual Fund® declined 1.9% and trailed the S&P 500 by 424 bps. Security selection in the communication services sector helped, but a lighter footprint in megacap tech companies detracted, as many of these companies are ineligible for fund inclusion.
  • Washington Mutual Investors Fund declined by 1.1% while trailing the S&P 500 by 340 bps. As with American Mutual Fund, an emphasis on durable, dividend-paying franchises through full market cycles could not keep pace with rapid shifts in leadership.
  • CGDV – Capital Group Dividend Value ETF declined by 0.7%. While it trailed the S&P 500 by 296 bps in the quarter, it remained slightly ahead YTD (up 20 bps) with a 13% return.
     

International funds

Our international funds produced some of the strongest results relative to their peer groups, but many trailed their benchmarks in the quarter amid a pronounced value rally.

  • CGXU – Capital Group International Focus Equity ETF gained 0.1% in the quarter, down 33 bps versus the MSCI ACWI ex USA Index. The fund, helped by security selection in the industrials sector, remained well ahead of the benchmark by 319 bps YTD. Stock selection within consumer discretionary detracted. CGXU was ranked in the top decile against peers in the 1-year period.
  • EUPAC FundTM declined by 0.4% in the quarter and trailed the MSCI ACWI ex USA by 89 bps. On a 1-year basis the fund ranked in the top quartile versus peers, with its core-growth orientation benefiting from the market's rotation to value.
  • American Funds® International Vantage Fund finished roughly flat, advancing 0.1%, while trailing the MSCI EAFE by 72 bps. As with EUPAC Fund, American Funds International Vantage Fund ranked well in the 1-year period, outpacing the median of its peer group, and results were helped by a recovery in some software-related “AI losers” that had hurt it earlier in the year. Conversely, some “AI winners” from the previous quarters detracted.
  • Our two pure EM funds, American Funds® Developing World Growth and Income Fund (up 0.7%) and Emerging Markets Equities Fund (up 2.7%), outpaced the MSCI EM Index in the quarter by 110 bps and 310 bps, respectively.


Forty-three percent of our equity-focused mutual funds and ETFs (16 of 37 funds) remained ahead of their Morningstar peer group average on a 1-year basis, and our longer term results versus peers are stronger: 71% (15 of 21 funds) outpaced peers in the trailing 10-year period.

Longer term perspective

Although recent fluctuations have created volatility in the market, our portfolio managers are steadfast in their long-term convictions rooted in deep, fundamental research.

At Capital Group, we do not seek to replicate benchmarks, but instead use our long-term view, diverse perspectives and collaborative research capabilities in seeking to best meet investor objectives over full market cycles.

 

Mutual fund and ETF rankings are based on total return. ETF returns are based on net asset value (NAV) and those are used to determine the rankings.

Source: Capital Group, based on Morningstar data as of September 30, 2026. The Morningstar rankings do not reflect the effects of sales charges, account fees or taxes. When applicable, results reflect fee waivers and/or expense reimbursements, without which they would have been lower. Please see capitalgroup.com for more information. Past results are not predictive of results in future periods. While American Funds mutual funds class F-2 shares do not include fees for advisor compensation and service provider payments, the share classes represented in the Morningstar category have varying fee structures and can include these and other fees and charges, resulting in higher expenses.

Fund results and analysis 

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Index comparisons:

The 22 equity-focused American Funds and their primary benchmarks in the results are as follows, unless otherwise indicated: AMCAP Fund®, American Mutual Fund®, Fundamental Investors®, The Growth Fund of America®, The Investment Company of America® and Washington Mutual Investors Fund (S&P 500 Index); American Balanced Fund® (60% S&P 500 Index and 40% Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index); American Funds® Global Balanced Fund (60% MSCI All Country World Index and 40% Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index); Capital Income Builder® (70%/30% MSCI All Country World Index/Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index); The Income Fund of America® (65%/35% S&P 500 Index/Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index); Capital World Growth and Income Fund®, The New Economy Fund®, New Perspective Fund® (MSCI All Country World Index); American Funds® Developing World Growth and Income Fund, New World Fund® and Emerging Markets Equities Fund (MSCI Emerging Markets Index); EUPAC FundTM and International Growth and Income Fund (MSCI All Country World ex USA Index); SMALLCAP World Fund® (MSCI All Country World Small Cap Index); American Funds® International Vantage Fund (MSCI EAFE [Europe, Australasia, Far East] Index); American Funds® Global Insight Fund (MSCI World Index); American Funds® U.S. Small and Mid Cap Equity Fund (Russell 2500 Index).

The 15 Capital Group equity-focused ETFs and their primary benchmarks in the results are as follows: CGDG — Capital Group Dividend Growers ETF, CGGO — Capital Group Global Growth Equity ETF, CGNG — Capital Group New Geography Equity ETF (MSCI All Country World Index); CGIE — Capital Group International Equity ETF (MSCI EAFE [Europe, Australasia, Far East] Index); CGUS — Capital Group Core Equity ETF, CGGR — Capital Group Growth ETF, CGDV — Capital Group Dividend Value ETF, CGCV — Capital Group Conservative Equity ETF (S&P 500 Index); CGXU — Capital Group International Focus Equity ETF, CGIC — Capital Group International Core Equity ETF (MSCI All Country World ex USA Index); CGGE — Capital Group Global Equity ETF (MSCI World Index); CGBL — Capital Group Core Balanced ETF (60%/40% S&P 500 Index/Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index); CGGG — Capital Group U.S. Large Growth ETF (Russell 1000 Growth Index); CGMM — Capital Group U.S. Small and Mid Cap ETF (Russell 2500 Index); CGVV — Capital Group U.S. Large Value ETF (Russell 1000 Value Index).

Important information:

Figures shown are past results and are not predictive of results in future periods. Returns for mutual funds are based on Class F-2 shares. Current and future results may be lower or higher than those shown. Investing for short periods makes losses more likely. Prices and returns will vary, so investors may lose money. View ETF expense ratios and returns. View mutual fund expense ratios and returns for F-2 share class and R-6 share class.

For Capital Group ETFs, market price returns are determined using the official closing price of the fund's shares and do not represent the returns you would receive if you traded shares at other times.

Investments are not FDIC-insured, nor are they deposits of or guaranteed by a bank or any other entity, so they may lose value.

Investors should carefully consider investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. This and other important information is contained in the ETF prospectuses and summary prospectuses and in the mutual fund prospectuses and summary prospectuses, which can be obtained from a financial professional and should be read carefully before investing.

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Securities mentioned are shown for illustrative purposes only and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell. Capital Group funds may or may not currently hold the securities referenced.

Investing outside the United States involves risks, such as currency fluctuations, periods of illiquidity and price volatility. These risks may be heightened in connection with investments in developing countries. (Also applies to CGGR, CGDV, CGXU, CGGO and CGDG).

Nondiversified funds have the ability to invest a larger percentage of assets in the securities of a smaller number of issuers than a diversified fund. As a result, poor results by a single issuer could adversely affect fund results more than if the fund invested in a larger number of issuers. See the applicable prospectus for details. (Also applies to CGGR, CGMM and CGDG).

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Smaller company stocks entail additional risks, and they can fluctuate in price more than larger company stocks.

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60%/40% MSCI All Country World Index/Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index blends the MSCI All Country World Index with the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index by weighting their cumulative total returns at 60% and 40%, respectively. The blend is rebalanced monthly. MSCI All Country World Index is a free-float-adjusted market-capitalization-weighted index that is designed to measure equity market results in the global developed and emerging markets, consisting of more than 40 developed- and emerging-markets country indexes. Results reflect dividends gross of withholding taxes through December 31, 2000, and dividends net of withholding taxes thereafter. Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index represents the global investment-grade fixed income markets. The indexes are unmanaged, and results include reinvested distributions but do not reflect the effect of sales charges, commissions, account fees, expenses or U.S. federal income taxes.

60%/40% S&P 500 Index/Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index blends the S&P 500 with the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index by weighting their cumulative total returns at 60% and 40%, respectively. The blend is rebalanced monthly. S&P 500 Index is a market- capitalization-weighted index based on the results of approximately 500 widely held common stocks. Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index represents the U.S. investment-grade fixed-rate bond market. The indexes are unmanaged, and results include reinvested distributions but do not reflect the effect of sales charges, commissions, account fees, expenses or U.S. federal income taxes.

65%/35% S&P 500 Index/Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index blends the S&P 500 with the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index by weighting their cumulative total returns at 65% and 35%, respectively. The blend is rebalanced monthly. S&P 500 Index is a market-capitalization-weighted index based on the results of approximately 500 widely held common stocks. Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index represents the U.S. investment-grade fixed-rate bond market. The indexes are unmanaged, and results include reinvested distributions but do not reflect the effect of sales charges, commissions, account fees, expenses or U.S. federal income taxes.

70%/30% MSCI All Country World Index/Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index blends the MSCI All Country World Index with the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index by weighting their total returns at 70% and 30%, respectively. The blend is rebalanced monthly. MSCI All Country World Index is a free-float-adjusted market-capitalization-weighted index that is designed to measure equity market results in the global developed and emerging markets, consisting of more than 40 developed- and emerging-markets country indexes. Results reflect dividends gross of withholding taxes through December 31, 2000, and dividends net of withholding taxes thereafter. Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index represents the U.S. investment-grade fixed-rate bond market. The indexes are unmanaged, and results include reinvested distributions but do not reflect the effect of sales charges, commissions, account fees, expenses or U.S. federal income taxes.

MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) ex USA is a free-float-adjusted market-capitalization-weighted index that is designed to measure equity market results in the global developed and emerging markets, excluding the United States. The index consists of more than 40 developed- and emerging-markets country indexes. Results reflect dividends gross of withholding taxes through December 31, 2000, and dividends net of withholding taxes thereafter. This index is unmanaged, and its results include reinvested dividends and/or distributions but do not reflect the effect of sales charges, commissions, account fees, expenses or U.S. federal income taxes.

MSCI All Country World Small Cap Index is a free-float-adjusted market-capitalization-weighted index that is designed to measure equity market results of smaller capitalization companies in both developed and emerging markets. Results reflect dividends net of withholding taxes. This index is unmanaged, and its results include reinvested dividends and/or distributions but do not reflect the effect of sales charges, commissions, account fees, expenses or U.S. federal income taxes.

MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) is a free-float-adjusted market-capitalization-weighted index that is designed to measure equity market results in the global developed and emerging markets, consisting of more than 40 developed- and emerging-markets country indexes.

MSCI ACWI Momentum Index is based on the MSCI All Country World Index and includes large- and mid-cap stocks across developed and emerging markets. It is designed to reflect an equity momentum strategy by emphasizing stocks with strong recent price momentum while maintaining liquidity, investment capacity and moderate turnover.

MSCI ACWI ex USA Value Index captures large- and mid-cap securities exhibiting value characteristics across developed and emerging markets outside the United States. Value characteristics are assessed using book value to price, 12-month forward earnings to price and dividend yield.

MSCI ACWI ex USA Growth Index captures large- and mid-cap securities exhibiting growth characteristics across developed and emerging markets outside the United States. Growth characteristics are assessed using forward earnings growth, internal growth, historical earnings growth and historical sales-per-share growth.

MSCI EAFE® (Europe, Australasia, Far East) Index is a free-float-adjusted market-capitalization-weighted index that is designed to measure developed equity market results, excluding the United States and Canada. Results reflect dividends net of withholding taxes. This index is unmanaged, and its results include reinvested dividends and/or distributions but do not reflect the effect of sales charges, commissions, account fees, expenses or U.S. federal income taxes.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free-float-adjusted market-capitalization-weighted index that is designed to measure equity market results in the global emerging markets, consisting of more than 20 emerging-markets country indexes. Results reflect dividends gross of withholding taxes through December 31, 2000, and dividends net of withholding taxes thereafter. This index is unmanaged, and its results include reinvested dividends and/or distributions but do not reflect the effect of sales charges, commissions, account fees, expenses or U.S. federal income taxes.

MSCI World Index is a free-float-adjusted market-capitalization-weighted index that is designed to measure equity market results of developed markets. The index consists of more than 20 developed market country indexes, including the United States. Results reflect dividends net of withholding taxes. This index is unmanaged, and its results include reinvested dividends and/or distributions but do not reflect the effect of sales charges, commissions, account fees, expenses or U.S. federal income taxes.

Russell 1000® Growth Index measures the performance of the large-cap growth segment of the US equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with relatively higher price-to-book ratios, higher I/B/E/S forecast medium term (2 year) growth and higher sales per share historical growth (5 years). The Russell 1000® Growth Index is constructed to provide a comprehensive and unbiased barometer for the large-cap growth segment. The index is completely reconstituted annually to ensure new and growing equities are included and that the represented companies continue to reflect growth characteristics. S&P 500 Index is a market capitalization-weighted index based on the average weighted results of approximately 500 widely held common stocks.

Russell 1000 Value Index is a market capitalization-weighted index that represents the large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity market and includes stocks from the Russell 1000 Index that have lower price-to-book ratios and lower expected growth values. This index is unmanaged, and its results include reinvested dividends and/or distributions but do not reflect the effect of sales charges, commissions, account fees, expenses or U.S. federal income taxes.

Russell 2500 Index measures the results of the small to mid-cap segment of the US equity universe, commonly referred to as "SMID" cap. The Russell 2500 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index. It includes approximately 2500 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. This index is unmanaged, and its results include reinvested dividends and/or distributions but do not reflect the effect of sales charges, commissions, account fees, expenses or U.S. federal income taxes.

S&P 500 Index is a market-capitalization-weighted index based on the results of approximately 500 widely held common stocks. This index is unmanaged, and its results include reinvested dividends and/or distributions but do not reflect the effect of sales charges, commissions, account fees, expenses or U.S. federal income taxes.

S&P 500 Equal Weight Index includes the same companies as the S&P 500 Index but assigns each company an equal weight at each quarterly rebalance rather than weighing companies by market capitalization.