Recession

U.S. economy hit by rolling recession

What happened to the widely predicted recession that was supposed to wreak havoc on the U.S. economy this year? It happened. Just not all at once.

 

Different sectors of the economy have experienced downturns at different times. Thanks to this rare case of a “rolling” recession, the U.S. may not experience a traditional recession at all this year, or next, even with the dual pressures of elevated inflation and high interest rates.

 

“I am increasingly seeing signs that we may not get a broad-based recession,” says Capital Group economist Jared Franz. “Instead, what we are getting are mini-recessions in various industries at various times without much synchronization.”

Different sectors have experienced downturns at different times

Sources: Travel: Capital Group, Transportation Security Agency (TSA), U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Data is a 30-day moving average. As of July 26, 2023. Semiconductors: Capital Group, Philadelphia Stock Exchange, Refinitiv Datastream. As of June 30, 2023. Data represents cumulative price return since January 1, 2019. Housing: Capital Group, Refinitiv Datastream, Standard & Poor's. Latest available monthly data is May 2023, as of July 27, 2023. Manufacturing: Capital Group, Institute for Supply Management (ISM), National Bureau of Economic Research. Refinitiv Datastream. Figures reflect the seasonally adjusted survey results from ISM's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). A PMI reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. As of June 30, 2023. Chemicals: Capital Group, U.S. Federal Reserve, Refinitiv Datastream. Data indexed to 100 in 2017. Figures are seasonally adjusted. As of June 30, 2023. Oil: Capital Group, Refinitiv. As of July 26,2023. Past results are not predictive of results in future periods.