Categories
U.S. Equities
Has stock market concentration reached a tipping point?
Eric Stern
Portfolio Manager
Gerald Du Manoir
Equity Portfolio Manager
Caroline Randall
Portfolio Manager

Hyperconcentration in the U.S. stock market may be nearing a peak.


Against a backdrop of disappointing economic news, stock market volatility has flared in recent weeks, and AI-focused tech titans have sustained some of the sharpest declines. Days after reporting robust earnings growth, semiconductor giant Nvidia plummeted 14% in a week, resulting in a $406 billion loss in market value, the largest weekly loss in dollars for any company in history. Microsoft, Meta Platforms and Alphabet have also seen their shares swing from gains to losses since early August.


The jump in volatility follows an extended period of dominance for the Magnificent Seven, a group of mega-cap tech companies, six of which have businesses connected to AI. Since the start of 2023, four of these companies — Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta — have accounted for 43% of the total U.S. market return as of June 30, 2024.


Whether news was good or bad, share prices for these companies only seemed to climb. Now one disappointing unemployment report can trigger sharp declines. “The sudden change in sentiment poses an important question for investors,” says Eric Stern, a portfolio manager with The Growth Fund of America®. “Is a shift in market leadership going to become the dominant theme in the years ahead? Or will the Magnificent Seven stocks continue to generate the lion’s share of returns?”


High market concentration poses risks


Even after accounting for the summer volatility, market concentration in the S&P 500 Index remains at stratospheric levels. The 10 largest companies in the S&P 500 (which include the aforementioned tech giants) accounted for a stunning 34.2% of the total market capitalization of the index as of August 31, 2024.


Market concentration has exceeded levels from the dot-com bubble

The dual line chart depicts the percent of market capitalization in top 10 companies (%), comparing the S&P 500 Index and MSCI EAFE Index from 1996 to 2024. The x-axis spans the years from 1996 through 2024, while the y-axis represents the percent of market capitalization in the top 10 companies. The S&P 500 line starts at roughly 17%, peaks around 27% during the dot-com bubble in early 2000, dips to around 17% around 2014, and then shows a steady increase with some fluctuations, reaching its highest point in recent years. As of August 31, 2024, it stood at 34.2%. In contrast, the MSCI EAFE Index begins at 11%, peaks around 20% during the dot-com bubble, and then follows a mostly downward trend with minor fluctuations, ending at 15.4% as of August 31, 2024.

Sources: Capital Group, Morningstar, MSCI, Standard & Poor's. As of August 31, 2024. Weights shown by issue, and they are the sum of the top 10 holdings of each index on a monthly basis.

Investors may be surprised to learn today’s market concentration is considerably higher than the peak of the dot-com bubble in 2000. But any comparisons of today’s market leaders with those of the tech bubble in 1999 must be viewed in context. Although elevated, valuations for today’s tech giants are considerably lower than those of the previous period and supported by strong earnings growth. For example, Nvidia’s profit more than doubled from a year earlier to $16.6 billion for the quarter ended July 31.


That said, high concentration can increase risk for investor portfolios. Today’s tech frontrunners can be vulnerable to regulatory risks, technological disruptions and the possibility that the path to AI profitability may be longer than expected.


“There is also some circularity to the Magnificent Seven earnings growth, because to some degree they are funding each other,” Stern says. Indeed, about half of Nvidia’s revenue in its latest quarter came from four companies.


Early signs of market rotation emerge


Even before the sharp market selloff in early August, there were signs of broadening market participation. A look at key style and geographic indexes shows that thus far in the third quarter, dividend payers, value companies and international equities all outpaced the broad S&P 500. And the MSCI EAFE Index, a broad measure of international stock markets, is far less concentrated than the U.S. market.


Dividend payers and international stocks have shown recent strength

The bar chart depicts total returns in USD for six equity market indexes representing a range of styles from July 1, 2024, through September 9, 2024. Returns were as follows: 4.6% for the Russell 1000 Value Index, -5.1% for the Russell 1000 Growth Index, 7.1% for the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index, -0.7% for the S&P 500 Index, 5.4% for the MSCI EAFE Value Index and 0.7% for the MSCI EAFE Growth Index.

Sources: Capital Group, RIMES. Figures reflect total returns in USD. As of September 9, 2024.

“The market environment had been telling us that only a few U.S. mega-cap companies were worthy of high valuations,” says Gerald Du Manoir, a portfolio manager for CGIE — Capital Group International Equity ETF and EuroPacific Growth Fund®. “Yet there are many companies across industries in international markets with superior businesses, strong reliable cash flows and earnings growth potential. I think investors are starting to recognize a broader range of opportunity.”


For example, German software developer SAP, which was considered to have been left in the dust when U.S. hyperscalers shifted to the cloud, has since made a successful transition to cloud and expanded its business by simplifying its offerings. “The market was skeptical that SAP could execute, but the company succeeded, and its customer adoption rate exploded,” Du Manoir says. “Sometimes it’s the basic things that make a difference.”


Beyond the tech sector, companies like French jet engine maker Safran are tapping into rising global demand for air travel. The company also generates recurring revenue streams through services and maintenance contracts for the engines.


Focusing on earnings, cash flow and dividends


Earnings growth for many tech giants has been robust. But a look across market sectors shows surprisingly strong growth for several, relative to their own histories, some of which include companies with a history of paying dividends. Take utilities, which in the second quarter reported 21% year-over-year earnings growth, the highest growth rate among the 11 sectors in the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Utilities Index, a measure of the largest U.S. utilities companies, gained 21% in 2024 through September 9, outpacing the 14% gain for the S&P 500 and the 19% gain for the S&P 500 Information Technology Index.


Technology isn’t the only sector generating earnings growth

The chart plots one-year forward price-to-earnings ratios and earnings per share estimates with five-year historical averages for the S&P 500 Index and nine subsectors of the index as of September 4, 2024. The overall S&P 500 reflected a price-to-earnings ratio 1.6 points higher than its five-year average and forward earnings growth 6% higher than its long-term average. Three subsectors, information technology, health care and financials, reflected price-to-earnings ratios and earnings growth estimates relative to their histories that were both higher than the overall index. The industrials, communication services and consumer discretionary sectors reflected price-to-earnings ratios that were lower and earnings growth estimates that were higher than the overall index relative to their own histories. Consumer staples and utilities reflected price-to-earnings ratios and earnings growth estimates relative to their own histories that were both lower than the overall index. The materials sector reflected a price-to-earnings ratio relative to its own history higher than the overall index and earnings growth estimates relative to its own history lower than the overall index.

Sources: Capital Group, FactSet, Standard & Poor's. Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are based on one-year forward earnings per share (EPS) estimates. Current EPS growth is based on the annualized earnings growth for 2023 to 2026 across sectors based on 2023 actuals and consensus EPS estimates for 2024 to 2026. Historical averages for earnings growth are based on the annualized earnings growth between 2018 to 2023 for each sector. Excludes real estate and energy sectors. As of September 4, 2024.

“I think we will continue to see this shift away from a very narrow U.S. stock market,” says Caroline Randall, a portfolio manager for Capital Income Builder®. “I expect investors will increasingly focus on companies tied to long-term growth themes that generate near-term free cash flow and pay dividends. And with the U.S. Federal Reserve planning to cut rates, we may be in the early stages of a renewed focus on dividends.”


For example, U.K. biopharmaceutical company AstraZeneca has invested heavily in research and development to address a wide range of cancers and cardiovascular and renal diseases. The company has a multi-decade track record of paying and increasing regular dividends.


Seeking out the market leaders of tomorrow


Will today’s tech giants continue to dominate, or will a new group of companies emerge as market leaders? “It would be difficult to discard the potential for today’s tech giants to remain on top,” Stern says. “But in the near term, all these companies are exposed to valuation risk as well as a variety of business risks. That’s why I am seeking balance in my portfolios and looking for opportunities across a broad range of sectors, including technology, health care and industrials.”


For example, within the industrials sector, companies like aerospace components manufacturer and designer TransDigm have sought to tap into soaring global demand for commercial travel. Similarly, GE Aerospace, formerly a conglomerate with interests in media, energy and health care, has reorganized itself to focus on producing jet engines.


After all, the market leaders of today may or may not be those of the future. In fact, a look at the top 10 largest companies by market capitalization at the start of each of the last four decades shows they often posted relatively modest returns in the subsequent 10 years. Are today’s mega-caps destined to fall? “Not necessarily,” says Stern. “But I am focused on discovering the market leaders of tomorrow.”



Eric Stern is an equity portfolio manager with 34 years of investment industry experience (as of 12/31/2023). He holds an MBA from Stanford and a bachelor’s degree in business administration from the University of California, Berkeley.

Gerald Du Manoir is an equity portfolio manager with 34 years of investment industry experience (as of 12/31/2023). He holds a degree in international finance from the Institut Supérieur de Gestion in Paris.

Caroline Randall is a portfolio manager with 26 years of investment industry experience (as of 12/31/2023). She also covers European utilities as an analyst. She holds master's and bachelor's degrees in economics from Cambridge.


Hyperscalers are large-scale cloud service providers that offer computing power and storage to organizations and individuals globally.

 

Past results are not reflective of results in future periods.

 

The market indexes are unmanaged and, therefore, have no expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.

 

MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted index designed to measure developed equity market results, excluding the United States and Canada.

 

MSCI EAFE Growth Index captures large- and mid-cap securities exhibiting overall growth style characteristics across developing markets around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.

 

MSCI EAFE Value Index captures large- and mid-cap securities exhibiting overall value style characteristics across developing markets around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.

 

Russell 1000 Growth Index measures the results of the large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe.

 

Russell 1000 Value Index measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe.

 

S&P 500 Index is a market capitalization-weighted index based on the results of approximately 500 widely held common stocks.

 

S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats is a stock market index composed of the companies in the S&P 500 Index that have increased their dividends in each of the past 25 consecutive years.

 

S&P 500 Information Technology Index comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the GICS information technology sector.

 

S&P 500 Utilities Index comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the GICS utilities sector.

 

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