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股市展望:分散投資的時機已至
Jared Franz
經濟師
Lawrence Kymisis
Portfolio Manager
Diana Wagner
股票基金經理

A strong corporate earnings rebound could be the tailwind that drives stock prices in 2024.


Heading into the new year, the economy continues to send mixed signals. But when it comes to stock prices, one of the metrics that matters most is corporate earnings.


In the US, Wall Street analysts expect earnings for companies in the S&P 500 Index to rise nearly 12% in 2024, based on consensus data compiled by FactSet. That’s along with an expected 6.1% earnings boost in developed ex-US markets and a robust 18% gain in emerging markets.


預期主要市場的盈利增長穩健

該圖所示為棒形圖,對美國(標準普爾500指數)、已發展國際市場(MSCI歐澳遠東指數)及新興市場(MSCI新興市場指數)的股票在2023年及2024年的估計全年盈利增長進行比較。盈利增長的估計值如下:美國在2023年及2024年分別上漲0.8%及11.4%;已發展國際市場在2023年及2024年分別上漲1.7%及6.1%;新興市場在2023年及2024年分別下跌10.2%及上漲17.9%。

資料來源:資本集團、FactSet、MSCI、標準普爾。估計全年盈利增長分別以標普500指數(美國)、MSCI歐澳遠東指數(美國除外的已發展市場)及MSCI新興市場指數(新興市場)截至2023年12月及2024年12月止年度的每股盈利普遍估計的平均值為代表。估計值截至2023年11月30日。

Given the difficulties of 2023, it’s logical to expect an earnings rebound in 2024. But there are several risks that could result in substantial earnings revisions, including sluggish consumer spending, slowing economic growth in Europe and China, and rising geopolitical risk from the wars in Ukraine and Israel.


“I don’t think it’s going to be a terrible year for corporate earnings, but I think we’re more likely to see 6% to 8% growth in the US,” says Capital Group economist Jared Franz, “and potentially higher in some emerging markets.”


Investors might look to 2023’s market leaders — US mega cap stocks driving the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution — as a continued source of strength in 2024 as applications roll out across the economy and potentially lead to further earnings growth.


Investor stock portfolios may be overconcentrated


However, investors will likely be well aware by now that the US stock market is top-heavy. What they might not know is the S&P 500 Index is more heavily concentrated than it was at the peak of the dot-com era.


As of September, the five largest companies in the S&P 500 accounted for 24% of the market capitalisation of the index. That compares with a 19% weighting for the five largest companies in the index as of March 2000.


As for market gains, just seven companies — Apple, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Amazon, Alphabet and Tesla — accounted for a staggering 130% of the index’s total return in the first 10 months of 2023. In other words, without the so-called ‘Magnificent Seven’, the S&P 500 would have posted a decline.


Diversification remains essential


Such levels of concentration represent potential risks for investors, particularly those in passive index investments, which seek to replicate the benchmark’s return pattern. While tech innovators may very well continue to lead in 2024, investors should consider diversifying their stock holdings, where applicable, according to equity portfolio manager Lawrence Kymisis.


“Many of these tech leaders can continue to be good long-term investments, but I think investors should be wary of investing in a small number of companies with similar business models at such concentrated levels,” says Kymisis. “Given the level of economic uncertainty heading into 2024, I believe diversification is as essential as ever. And I believe we at Capital Group can identify great companies across industries in markets around the world, including US tech leaders.”


A quick comparison of other major developed market equity indexes with the S&P 500 shows the former are less concentrated and suggests they may offer a broader range of opportunities. As of 31 October, 2023, the 10 largest companies in the S&P 500 accounted for a 31.2% weighting of the index. In contrast, the 10 largest companies in the MSCI EAFE Index, a broad measure of developed non-US markets, accounted for 15.2% of the index weighting.


相較歷史水平及國際市場,標普500指數出現頭重腳輕的情況

該圖所示為線形圖,追蹤1996年至2023年10月間三大股票指數的十大公司權重:標普500指數、MSCI歐澳遠東指數及MSCI ACWI全球(美國除外)指數。截至2023年10月31日,各自十大公司的權重如下:標普500指數為31.2%、MSCI歐澳遠東指數為15.2%,以及MSCI ACWI全球(美國除外)指數為11.4%。

資料來源:資本集團、晨星。數據截至2023年10月31日。

Compelling trends are surfacing across international markets


“That is not to suggest any form of diversification will benefit investors,” Kymisis adds. “There are plenty of fish in the sea, but our job as active portfolio managers is to identify those companies with the potential to be among the next wave of market leaders."


US technology giants do not hold a monopoly on innovation. Europe is home to pioneering companies driving breakthroughs across health care, aerospace and other industries.


For example, AstraZeneca, the British-Swedish COVID vaccine developer and maker of lung cancer treatment Tagrisso, has invested aggressively in research and development, resulting in a deep pipeline of oncological and rare disease therapies in late-stage development.


Air travel is a secular growth industry in a lot of countries, and demand is growing for new airplanes. With regulators in Europe and across the globe imposing stricter emissions requirements, innovation will also be key in solving sustainability challenges in the aerospace industry.


“Airlines will be incentivized to order the newest, most efficient planes, creating a tailwind for leading-edge manufacturers,” says Michael Cohen, an equity portfolio manager.


To illustrate this theme of seeking efficiency, France’s Safran, the world’s top producer of narrow-body aircraft engines, through its partnership with General Electric, is developing engines that could reduce emissions by 20%.


多個行業的創新企業均位於歐洲

該圖所示為資訊圖,描述三家歐洲註冊公司在各自行業內為推動創新所作的貢獻。製藥業方面,該圖顯示阿斯利康(AstraZeneca)為一家於英國劍橋註冊的公司,市值為1,987億美元。該公司的估計整體潛在市場規模為2,800億美元,其收入的73%來自歐洲以外地區。化學製品業方面,該圖顯示西卡(Sika)為一家於瑞士巴爾註冊的公司,市值為438億美元。該公司的估計整體潛在市場規模為1,220億美元,其收入的69%來自歐洲以外地區。航天科技與國防業方面,該圖顯示Safran為一家於法國巴黎註冊的噴射引擎製造商,市值為751億美元。該公司的估計整體潛在市場規模為7,480億美元,其收入的59%來自歐洲以外地區。

資料來源:資本集團、Aviation Week Intelligence Network、公司報告、FactSet、Global Market Insights、MSCI。上述公司作為特定行業的歐洲公司示例,該等公司具有地域多元化的收入基礎;各選定公司是MSCI歐洲指數內各自行業按市值計算的十大公司。地區收入百分比來自FactSet根據公司最新公佈的數據估計,截至2023年11月30日。"TAM"是指整體潛在市場規模。

Japan takes steps to unlock value for investors


Despite strong headwinds in the Japanese economy, a few innovative Japanese firms have built durable businesses with highly defensible moats. For instance, SMC is a leader in robotic equipment components and semiconductor production, and TDK is among the largest manufacturers of high-end electric vehicle batteries.


Many Japanese companies have been known for hoarding cash and subpar governance. But government leaders and the Tokyo Stock Exchange are urging firms to adopt reforms to improve profitability and boost stock valuations. Among the reforms are steps to reduce cash on balance sheets and shed underperforming businesses. About a third of Japanese companies have price-to-book values (a financial metric used to compare the book value of a company with its market capitalisation) lower than the value of their underlying assets.


Sustained reforms could unlock opportunities across industries.


Emerging markets come out of China’s shadow


In emerging markets, China may dominate headlines, but opportunities are growing in countries such as India, Indonesia and Mexico, regions where Infrastructure growth is accelerating, government balance sheets are stronger and supply chain shifts are boosting regional economies.


New roads, housing developments and industrial parks have left parts of India unrecognizable from just a few years ago. Indonesia is attracting foreign investment to build out the electric vehicle supply chain. And Mexico is becoming a reshoring hub, as Western economies look to reconfigure supply chains.


Investment opportunities range from banks to airplane component makers to real estate developers to mining and consumer-related companies. Meanwhile, the rapid expansion of mobile-based technology platforms is tapping into demand for consumer services.


Dividend payers offer diversification potential


While investors watched the powerful AI-dominated market rally, valuations for dividend-paying stocks quietly drifted toward multi-decade lows compared to the broader market. With economic growth expected to moderate in 2024, and the potential for recession lingering, dividends may take a more prominent role in driving total returns for investors.


高息股的估值遠低於市場平均水平

該圖所示為線形圖,描述1980年至2023年11月28日期間標普500指數中高息股的6個月平均市盈率對比整體指數。截至2023年9月30日,高息股的相對市盈率較整體市場平均值低25.9%。高息股的40年平均市盈率較整體市場平均值低12.9%。高息股是指標普500指數中股息收益率處於該指數最高五分位(行業中性)的股票組別。

資料來源:資本集團、高盛。截至2023年11月28日。高息股是指標普500指數中股息收益率處於該指數最高五分位(行業中性)的股票組別。虛線代表6個月平滑化平均值。市盈率 = 股票價格與每股盈利的比率。過往的業績表現並非未來期間業績表現的指標。

Select dividend payers across a variety of industries are adopting strategies to drive demand for their offerings. For example, retail pharmacy CVS Health is launching a new division that will work with drugmakers to produce biosimilar versions of leading therapies that are more affordable.


Other dividend payers, whose offerings tend to maintain steady demand through market cycles, can offer a measure of stability. For example, many of beverage maker Keurig Dr Pepper’s offerings, like Canada Dry and Snapple, have strong brand recognition and a history of relatively stable demand through business cycles.


“It is difficult to know when a cycle will turn, so investors may want to look for companies with growth potential but also businesses that pay dividends, which can help mitigate market volatility,” says Diana Wagner, an equity portfolio manager. “Valuation is important, but it is essential to distinguish between real values and companies with deteriorating business prospects.”



Jared Franz為現任經濟師,擁有18年投資行業經驗(截至2023年12月31日)。他持有美國伊利諾大學芝加哥分校(University of Illinois at Chicago)經濟學博士學位及西北大學(Northwestern University)數學學士學位。

Lawrence Kymisis is an equity portfolio manager at Capital Group. As an equity investment analyst, he has research responsibility for European business services. Earlier in his career at Capital, he covered small- and mid-cap companies across Europe as a generalist, as well as the gaming and service industries. He has 25 years of investment experience and has been with Capital Group for 17 years.

Diana Wagner 為現任股票基金經理,擁有23年投資經驗。她持有美國哥倫比亞大學商學院(Columbia Business School)工商管理碩士學位及耶魯大學(Yale University)藝術史學士學位。


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