Economic Indicators
Notes from the field
Electric vehicles could push gas aside in China
Electric vehicles and hybrids are poised to capture more than half of Chinese car buyers, with market penetration estimates for 2025 ranging from 55% to 70%. The implications could stretch beyond robust sales for EV dealers: As the market shrinks for traditional combustion-engine vehicles, that could create a vicious cycle in which automakers avoid designing and marketing in that space.
Labor figures could buck expectations in Europe
While Chinese demand is falling and government fiscal support is ending, Europe’s labor markets could stay tight for some time. That incongruous outcome could be related to weak labor supply. Though the number of European Union jobs is well above its pre-pandemic cap, employees are working fewer hours. This could result in pressure to raise wages even as the economy softens.
Housing price upside could boost Korean banks
South Korean banking institutions could be set for near-term growth on encouraging economic news. The key has been the recent real estate recovery. There had been concern that a surge in South Korea’s already expensive home prices could lead to a jump in nonperforming loans. But that fear has not come true.
U.S. dollar set to continue charging ahead
The U.S. dollar has stayed stubbornly high, which has knock-on effects in areas as varied as international trade and stock returns. That streak could continue, with global growth on an anemic path for 2023 even as estimates of U.S. GDP have been revised upward several times. Current projections suggest the dollar could continue to gather strength well into next year.
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