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EMD outlook for 2023: local currency yields offer protection in volatile conditions
Kirstie Spence
Portfolio Manager
Harry Phinney
Fixed Income Investment Director

Global factors weighing on emerging market debt (EMD) in 2022 look likely to continue in 2023, with three main driving forces within this: tighter financial conditions led by the US, a stronger US dollar and weak global growth.

Despite this backdrop, however, high starting yields within EM local currency bonds could help offset subsequent price volatility, while negative outcomes appear to be priced in within some areas of hard currency debt. In this piece, Kirstie Spence and Harry Phinney look at EMD’s prospects for the next year, weighting the opportunities and challenges.

Within local currency bonds, we prefer to extend duration in Latin American countries that have hiked interest rates early and are starting to see opportunities within Europe. On the hard currency side, we favour a meaningful positive carry through idiosyncratic, high-yielding sovereign and select corporate issuers.

EM real yields have offered a 2-4% pick up over US 

EM real yield minus US real yields

chart1 EMD

Past results are not a guarantee of future results.

As at 31 October 2022. EM represented by JPMorgan GBI-EM Global Diversified. EM real yields minus US real yields (10-year yields). Source: Bloomberg

High income with diversification on multiple levels

Kirstie Spence is a fixed income portfolio manager at Capital Group. She has 27 years of investment industry experience, all with Capital Group. She holds a master’s degree with honours in German and international relations from the University of St. Andrews, Scotland. Kirstie is based in London.

Harry Phinney is a fixed income investment director with 17 years of industry experience. He holds an MBA in international business from Northeastern University, a master's degree in applied statistics and financial mathematics from Columbia University and a bachelor's degree in international political economy from Northeastern University.

Capital Group UK – Global High Income Opportunities​

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