Our 2024 capital market assumptions
(projected annualised returns over a 20-year horizon)
are a mixed bag
Higher for bonds and modestly lower for equities.
Equities
Strong gains across markets over the past year have tempered our expectations for equity returns relative to our 2023 estimates.
Fixed income
Higher starting yields translate into higher expected returns across many areas of fixed income.
Currencies
We expect the US dollar to depreciate 70 basis points per annum against major currencies over the 20-year horizon.
Still a bright outlook for long-term
investors
Watch Capital Group analysts and economists discuss our capital market assumptions and share their economic outlook for markets
Executive summary
For a more concise version of our 2024 CMAs.
Full report
Download the 2024 capital market assumptions for a detailed report on all major asset classes and markets.
Asset Class Forecasts
Here is an overview of our key asset class forecasts to help inform asset allocation decisions.
All are projected over a 20-year horizon and in USD terms.
Strong gains across markets over the past year
have tempered our expectations for equity returns
6.8%
Developed market equity (inc. US)
6.9%
US equity
5.8%
Europe ex-UK equity
Higher starting yields have bolstered return
assumptions across many areas of fixed income
4.0%
US Treasury intermediate term
4.2%
Global aggregate
7.1%
Emerging markets debt (USD)
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