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  Insights

Long-Term Investing
During down markets, remember your goals

The fruits of successful investing can be sweet. It’s impossible to put a price tag on the joy of security for your loved ones or the satisfaction that comes with building a lasting legacy that helps improve the world.


But an investor’s path is not always smooth. That’s been amply demonstrated this year as a rare confluence of challenges have dragged down the equity and bond markets. Periods in which it feels as though there’s constant pressure on your portfolio can be nerve-wracking oreven frightening. But that’s why investors should have a long-term investment plan, says Sandra Morelli, a regional director at Capital Group Private Client Services.


“As an investor, you must be willing and able to weather some market downturns,” she says. “That should be built into your plan. Equities have a history of rebounding unexpectedly, and you’ll miss a recovery if you’re not invested.”


But sometimes good advice, careful calculations and historical data aren’t enough to quell a bout of anxiety. Morelli says faith in her fellow investment professionals helps her concentrate on her clients’ end goals, and that setting aside cash to get through downturns — a hallmark of the planning work done at Capital Group Private Client Services — can be of great comfort.


And if you are especially apprehensive, she notes that there are commonsense ways to evaluate your investments that don’t involve drastic action that you might regret later.


“An investor can be uncomfortable with their level of risk for a variety of reasons,” she says. “Maybe their circumstances changed or they simply bit off more than they could chew from a volatility perspective. No matter the case, your Private Wealth Advisor can help you sensibly reevaluate your portfolio.”


U.S. stocks grew more in bull markets than they lost in bear markets

Alt text: This chart shows the cumulative returns of the S&P 500 during bull and bear markets from June 13, 1949, through June 30, 2022. The average bull market had a total return of 265% and lasted 67 months. The average bear market had a total loss of 33% and lasted 13 months. The bear market that began on January 3, 2022, is considered current and is not included in the “average bear market” calculations. Bear markets are peak-to-trough price declines of 20% or more in the S&P 500. Bull markets are all other periods. Returns are in US$ and shown in logarithmic scale. Indexes are unmanaged and, therefore, have no expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. As of September 30, 2022. Sources: Capital Group, RIMES, Standard & Poor’s.
Sources: Capital Group, RIMES, Standard & Poor’s. The bear market that began on January 3, 2022, is considered current and is not included in the “average bear market” calculations. Bear markets are peak-to-trough price declines of 20% or more in the S&P 500. Bull markets are all other periods. Returns are in US$ and shown on a logarithmic scale. Indices are unmanaged and, therefore, have no expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Chart covers period from June 13, 1949, through June 30, 2022. As of September 30, 2022.

Stay focused on long-term goals.


It’s often been said that investors are optimists — after all, they wouldn’t purchase securities if they didn’t anticipate a worthwhile return. And while down markets can periodically dampen that enthusiasm, investors willing to take a long perspective can look to prior periods to inform their outlook. Thus far, every stock market crash has eventually been followed by a recovery. And while past results are not a guarantee of future returns, that’s good news — even if it’s not terribly precise. An investor who invests solely in equities will be fully exposed to the short-term vagaries of the stock market, for example.


That’s where an investment plan comes in, Morelli says. It should be designed to help you pursue your goals, whether they’re as personal as providing for your own spending needs in retirement or helping the next generation, or as far-reaching as establishing a legacy fund for a beloved organization.


“If you abandon your plan during a downturn, you’re giving up on that careful asset allocation designed to help you pursue your goals,” Morelli says. “At Capital Group Private Client Services, we do that analytical work on the front end, before a client invests, in what we call a wealth strategy analysis.


It helps us assess the kind of risk exposure they may need and how much risk they could afford to take. Most investors will want diversified strategies in stock and bond markets to have a good chance of achieving their goals.”


Given that downturns are relatively common — the S&P 500 has fallen by 20% or more 11 times since World War II, for example — it becomes even more critical to think beyond declines, as most long-term investors are likely to weather more than one. A long-term investment plan should already be taking periodic declines into account, so it can be a costly mistake to let temporary market dips drive investment decision-making.


Compounding that issue is that markets have historically turned very rapidly, recovering a significant portion of their losses after finding a trough.


“Just think back to March 9, 2009,” Morelli says, referring to the S&P 500’s low point during the global financial crisis. “No one knew March 10 was the beginning of the sustainable recovery. Anyone who had moved to cash shortly before that date was likely going to miss at least part of the upswing.”


There are ways to approach a problem if it’s really weighing on you.


Morelli notes that investors sometimes do have too much risk in their portfolio. That can be due to a variety of factors — sometimes their circumstances or goals change; other times, they simply overestimated how much risk they could stomach. No matter the reason, there are ways to approach the matter with your Private Wealth Advisor.


“In my experience, it sometimes comes down to simply examining your other holdings,” Morelli says. “Taking a long look at your liquidity, and rethinking how you plan to use your money and your investments, are enough to reassure some clients.”


But when that’s not enough, you can always revisit your planning with a new wealth strategy analysis. This reevaluation will let you know the potential long-term impact of changing your plan — not only the effect on your holdings but on how likely you are to achieve your investment goals. It might also uncover new ways to pursue the growth your plans demand, such as rearranging your equity exposure. In the 2010s, conditions were much more favorable for aggressive growth strategies, and some investors may have overestimated their tolerance for risk after years of impressive results.


Finally, if you absolutely must make meaningful changes, do so thoughtfully, Morelli says.


“Consider making incremental adjustments. If the market begins moving up, you can reconsider and you haven’t completely shifted your strategy,” she says. “And if the market keeps going down, you’ve started the process of selling early and you’ll potentially capture some tax benefits along the way, all the while reducing the risk that you’ll miss out on any potential upswing.”


And, of course, Morelli says that any adjustments should be made with a long-term plan in mind.


“A disciplined approach to the market can help add value over full market cycles,” she adds. “Rebalancing or adjusting stock exposure can be helpful for a long-term investor, but especially in the context of an appropriate plan.”



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