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2026 Investment Outlook

Our latest Outlook report offers actionable insights into global markets

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17 December 2025

Capital Group's 2026 Outlook report delves into many market-driving issues, including tariff uncertainty, the challenge of high valuations, corporate earnings expectations, and how sticky inflation and weakening labour markets are influencing the path of interest rates. It also identifies key investment themes and how they're affecting various asset classes. Here we offer an overview of the opportunities as we see them. Be sure to download the full report for a deeper dive.

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Our latest insights

The future of health care: Medtech’s innovation hotspots
Five themes for EM debt in 2026: a year of greater divergence
Stock market outlook: Three investment strategies for 2026
  1. Macro perspectives
  2. Equity opportunities
  3. Bond opportunities

The global economy shows its resilience

In our view, investors should expect improved economic stability in the year ahead, with the potential for reacceleration in the second half, as the path of global trade comes into clearer focus. The US has negotiated trade deals with many countries, and tariffs generally have settled at much lower rates than initially feared.

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 “The clearer picture on tariffs should free up businesses to make capital decisions, like investing in reshoring supply chains.” 

 

- Jared Franz, Economist

Forecasts are for illustrative purpose only.
Sources: Capital Group, Bloomberg. Consensus reflects sell-side U.S. Real GDP year-over-year growth estimates. Real GDP (gross domestic product) is the inflation-adjusted value of the goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States.

Macro outlook: Less uncertainty, healthy growth

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2026 Outlook webinar

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Five forces that could stimulate the US economy

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AI opportunity set expands across the economy

With hundreds of billions of dollars invested in just the past few years, the AI build-out continues at a staggering pace. The kind of dynamic growth exemplified by AI is one of three broad equity market themes outlined in our Outlook 2026, alongside the importance of dividends and opportunities in markets outside the US.

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"Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and others have the incentive and resources to continue investing aggressively, generating greater demand for advanced semiconductors and infrastructure."

 

Mark Casey, Equity portfolio manager

Sources: Capital Group, Bloomberg. Return and yield figures are for the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index. “Current” value is based on latest starting yield to worst (the lowest yield an investor can earn if the bond is redeemed or called before its maturity date), using the historical linear trend line to approximate implied forward five-year return as of November 30, 2025. Past results are not a guarantee of future results.

Equity outlook: three investment themes for 2026

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Are we in an AI bubble?

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Fresh breadth? Market concentration in three charts

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Bonds should offer ballast

In the US, economic growth prospects are up, just as job growth is weakening. For investors, this unusual backdrop underscores the potential for bonds to offer steady income and a measure of downside protection. Starting yields have historically been a strong indicator of long-term return potential. At today’s valuations, high-quality bonds can play the dual role of generating income and acting as a buffer.

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 “The biggest question facing investors is whether the labour market weakness will weigh on consumption. That would increase the risk of a sharper downturn in growth.” 

 

- Chitrang Purani, Fixed income portfolio manager

Starting yields often indicate long-term returns 


Annualised five-year total return (%) of Bloomberg US Aggregate Index  

Sources: Capital Group, Bloomberg. Consensus reflects sell-side U.S. Real GDP year-over-year growth estimates. Real GDP (gross domestic product) is the inflation-adjusted value of the goods and services produced by labour and property located in the United States. 
Past results are not a guarantee of future results.

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Long-term perspective on markets and economies

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Past results are not predictive of results in future periods. It is not possible to invest directly in an index, which is unmanaged. The value of investments and income from them can go down as well as up and you may lose some or all of your initial investment. This information is not intended to provide investment, tax or other advice, or to be a solicitation to buy or sell any securities.
 
Statements attributed to an individual represent the opinions of that individual as of the date published and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Capital Group or its affiliates. All information is as at the date indicated unless otherwise stated. Some information may have been obtained from third parties, and as such the reliability of that information is not guaranteed.
 
Capital Group manages equity assets through three investment groups. These groups make investment and proxy voting decisions independently. Fixed income investment professionals provide fixed income research and investment management across the Capital organisation; however, for securities with equity characteristics, they act solely on behalf of one of the three equity investment groups.