Marking down our estimates for equities and bonds
Our 2025 Capital Market Assumptions are lower across stocks
and bonds relative to last year
Equities
The outsized returns of equities over the past two years, increasing market concentration and high stock valuations make us more cautious
Fixed income
Return expectations decreased, as starting yields are lower and spreads have experienced meaningful compression
Currencies
We expect the US dollar to depreciate against a broad basket of currencies over the 20-year horizon
Still a bright outlook for long-term investors
With uncertainty around tariffs and lowered global growth expectations, it is important to adopt a long-term perspective. In this video, solutions portfolio manager Michelle Black looks at our capital market assumptions and how these are impacted by current volatility.
Executive summary
Get a quick overview with our concise summary
Full report
Dive deep into our detailed estimates for each asset class and region, along with our economic outlook.
Asset Class Forecasts
Here an overview of our key asset class forecasts to help inform your allocation decisions.
All are projected over a 20-year horizon and in USD terms.
Outsized returns on equities over the past
two years make us more cautious
6.0%
Developed market equity (ex-US)
6.3%
US equity
5.7%
Europe ex-UK equity
Most return expectations down versus 2024
due to modestly lower starting yields
4.0%
US Treasury intermediate term
4.4%
Global Aggregate (hedged to USD)
7.0%
Emerging markets debt (USD)
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