Economic Indicators Economic outlook: Less uncertainty, healthy growth

If 2025 was the year that tariff-induced uncertainty upended the outlook for the global economy, 2026 could be the year that things come back into focus.

Investors should expect greater stability in the year ahead as global trade disputes subside, government stimulus measures kick in, interest rates move lower, and a boom in artificial intelligence spending continues to drive economic growth.

“The economy has been pushing through several headwinds,” says Brady Enright, an equity portfolio manager, citing rising tariffs, relatively high interest rates, and the recent US government shutdown, among other challenging events. “I think there is a case that the economic backdrop improves considerably in 2026.”

Indeed, consensus estimates for global economic growth are positive across the board despite expectations for lingering trade disputes, geopolitical conflicts and elevated inflation. Worldwide, real GDP growth is projected to hit 3.1% on a full-year basis in 2026, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The US economy could grow around 2.0% as AI-related spending and government stimulus measures provide support while the labour market weakens and higher tariffs reduce trade activity. Emerging markets, led by China, are expected to produce the strongest growth rates, aggregating to 4.0% in 2026, based on IMF projections, while the European economy comes in around 1.1%, supported by higher spending on national defence and infrastructure.

Capital Group economists, who are part of Capital Strategy Research, are slightly less optimistic about the prospects for the global economy but they still expect to see solid growth in the US, Europe, Japan and most emerging markets. That is primarily due to more clarity on US tariffs and trade policy, compared to earlier in the year.

“The clearer picture on tariffs should free up businesses to make capital decisions, like investing in reshoring supply chains,” says economist Jared Franz.

US trade policy whipsawed financial markets this year, but 2026 could be less eventful given recent trade deals announced between the US, Europe and Japan, among other countries. That is a big change from April, when President Trump unleashed the highest tariffs in nearly 100 years against every US trading partner in what he called “Liberation Day.” Stocks initially fell sharply, then reversed course and staged a remarkable months-long rally.

How that happened remains up for debate. But part of the explanation is that policy uncertainty gradually declined over the ensuing months as world leaders hammered out trade deals, Trump backed away from some threats, and investors concluded that tariff rates might not be as onerous as previously expected. In fact, the actual effective US tariff rate has hovered around 11% in recent months, far lower than anticipated.

US recession worries, widespread in April, have calmed and markets have reflected that shift. This positive investor sentiment could continue to boost stocks, as the US economy avoids a downturn and grows at a moderate pace.

“It would probably take something akin to ‘Liberation Day: Part 2’ to really sink the US economy,” says economist Tryggvi Gudmundsson. “Policy uncertainty has dissipated and markets have moved on. While likely that trade drama will flare up as new tariffs emerge, it will hopefully come with fewer market fireworks.”

Generally favourable macroeconomic conditions are providing a positive backdrop for corporate earnings in 2026. Consensus earnings estimates for the new year are looking brighter as the Federal Reserve seeks to reduce interest rates, government spending fuels industrial activity, and many companies plan to resume major capital expenditures (CapEx) now that tariff levels are coming into better focus. The AI boom is a significant driver of CapEx expansion, spurring strong demand for computer chips, data centres, and related spending.

Companies based in emerging markets are expected to enjoy the strongest earnings growth, rising 17.2%, while the United States comes in just over 14% and Europe slightly above 11%, based on FactSet earnings estimates as of 30 November 2025.

Looking ahead, there are tailwinds that should drive earnings growth and support market gains beyond the technology sector, but ultimately what is going to matter is corporate earnings growth.

Investors should expect occasional market downturns

Although there are many encouraging signs for the year ahead, there are also clear risks on the horizon and investors should prepare for inevitable market pullbacks.

For starters, stocks are expensive. Most equity markets around the world have generated strong returns from 2023 to 2025. While company earnings have generally been solid, price-to-earnings ratios for US, developed ex-US and emerging markets were all above their 10-year averages at the end of September 2025.

Sticky inflation and mounting government debt in the US, Europe and elsewhere are also cause for concern. Aggressive stimulus measures to support economic growth will only contribute to debt levels, with the total for the US expected to exceed 140% of GDP by 2030, according to IMF predictions.

Keep in mind, stock market declines are regular occurrences. The S&P 500 Index has experienced market corrections, or declines of 10 per cent or more, about once every 16 months. Whereas the index has had bear markets, or declines of 20 per cent or more, about once every six years, based on market data from 1954 to 2025.

“The optimism priced into markets doesn’t leave a lot of room for disappointment,” says economist Darrell Spence. “There will almost always be the unanticipated surprises that occur every year, even when the outlook is positive.”