Capital Ideas

Investment insights from Capital Group

Asset Allocation
5 keys to investing in 2020
Joyce Gordon
Equity Portfolio Manager
Darrell Spence
Mike Gitlin
Head of Fixed Income

As we begin a new year, investors may be taking some time to reassess their portfolios and establish expectations for the road ahead. If any lesson can be drawn from 2019 — with its sudden shifts in the U.S.-China trade war, the U.K.’s Brexit drama and global monetary policy — it’s that investors should expect the unexpected.

Time will tell what surprises will greet investors in 2020, a presidential election year in the U.S. But despite political and economic uncertainty, investors can take steps to prepare for the inevitable twists and turns that will surely drive market volatility. Here are five keys to staying on track in the year ahead.

1. Patient investors can do well in election years

As in any presidential election year, politics are sure to dominate news headlines in 2020. And with impeachment proceedings looming over Washington and debate raging over health care policy, this election cycle is shaping up to be especially contentious.

Investors may have strong preferences for one candidate or political party when it comes to the direction of the country, but when it comes to the direction of markets, history suggests that the election outcome will make little difference. A look back at every presidential election cycle since 1932 shows that U.S. markets have consistently trended upward after presidential elections, rewarding patient investors — regardless of who occupies the White House.

Chart of S&P 500 Index average cumulative returns since 1932 shows that volatility during primaries is often followed by strong returns. Non-election years had a subsequent one-year return of 5.8%, compared to 10.2% in presidential election years. Sources: Capital Group, RIMES, Standard & Poor's. Includes all daily price returns from January 1, 1932, through November 30, 2019. Years without an election exclude all years with either a presidential or midterm election. Subsequent one-year return calculation begins on May 31 each year, a proxy for the end of primaries. Standard & Poor's 500 Composite Index is a market capitalization-weighted index based on the results of approximately 500 widely held common stocks.

“Presidents get far too much credit, and far too much blame, for the health of the U.S. economy and the state of the financial markets,” says Capital Group economist Darrell Spence. “There are many other variables that determine economic growth and market returns and, frankly, presidents have very little influence over them.”

To be sure, investors can expect heightened market volatility this election year, especially during the noisy primary season. But election-related volatility can produce select opportunities. For example, pharmaceutical and managed care stocks have recently come under pressure amid political criticism of private sector health insurance. That, in turn, has resulted in some attractive company valuations for investors who believe that a government takeover of the nation’s health care system isn’t imminent.

“Investing during an election year can be tough on your nerves,” explains Greg Johnson, a portfolio manager with American Balanced Fund®, but it’s mostly noise and the markets carry on. Long-term equity returns are determined by the underlying fundamentals of individual companies.”

The bottom line: It may be better to stay invested than sit on the sidelines.

2. The best offense may be a good defense

Election-related news won’t be the only concern weighing on investors in 2020. With the U.S. economy in late-cycle territory and the direction of U.S.-China trade relations not yet resolved, investors may be worried that a downturn is on the horizon. While a recession in not likely in 2020, it’s never too soon to prepare for rough seas ahead.

To do this, many investors may instinctively pursue a more defensive approach, shifting toward so-called value-oriented investments. But the value label can be misleading: Not all value-oriented investments have acted defensively during recent periods of stock market volatility. 

Instead, investors may want to focus on dividend-paying companies, which have historically played an important role in helping to mitigate equity market volatility. However, not all dividend payers are equal, or sustainable, so selectivity is essential.

Between September 20, 2018, and November 30, 2019, a period of trade-related volatility, companies with above average credit ratings outpaced those with lower ratings. What’s more, dividend payers with above average credit ratings outpaced those with lower credit ratings and companies that paid little or no dividends. 

Chart shows that dividend-paying stocks with above average credit ratings have outpaced dividend payers with below average credit ratings and stocks paying little or no dividends. Sources: Capital Group, FactSet, Morningstar. Includes all stocks in the S&P 500 Index for the entire period of September 20, 2018, through November 30, 2019. September 20, 2018 was the market peak in 2018. "Low/no dividends" category includes all companies with a dividend yield less than or equal to 0.5%. Credit ratings are based on the lower of S&P and Moody's rating. “Above average” includes credit ratings A or higher. “Below average” includes credit ratings A- or lower. Companies with no credit rating are included in the "Below average" category. Companies without debt are included in the "Above average" category. Returns are in USD.

“I steer clear of companies that have taken on too much debt,” notes Joyce Gordon, a portfolio manager with American Mutual Fund®. “Companies at the lower end of the investment-grade spectrum can struggle to fund themselves in a recession, increasing the risk that they might cut their dividends.”

Companies with solid credit ratings that have paid meaningful dividends can be found across a range of sectors. Some examples include UnitedHealth, Microsoft, Procter and Gamble, and Home Depot.

3. If you think all the best stocks are in the U.S., think again

International equities rose in 2019 but have now lagged the S&P 500 Index eight times in the past decade. This remarkable dominance by the U.S. market, driven by innovative tech and health care companies, has raised questions about whether it still makes sense to maintain exposure to international stock markets

In fact, it makes more sense than ever if you consider how dramatically the world has changed under the influence of free trade, global supply chains and the rapid growth of multinational corporations. “Where a company gets its mail is not a good proxy anymore for where it does business,” explains Rob Lovelace, a portfolio manager with New Perspective Fund®, which invests in companies all over the world. “The debate over U.S. versus non-U.S. stocks made sense at one time. But the world has changed, and investors need to change their mindset as well.”

Even during this past decade of U.S. dominance, many of the best stocks each year have been found outside the United States. Over the past 10 years, most of the top 50 stocks were non-U.S., even though the U.S. index did better overall. In 2019, 37 of the top 50 stocks were based on foreign soil. 

Think all the best stocks are in the U.S.? Nope, not even close. 74% of the top stocks since 2010 have been based outside the U.S. Chart image shows the number of top 50 stocks each year from 2010 to 2019 year-to-date by company location: Emerging markets (ex China), China, developed international and United States. The index returns for U.S. and non-U.S. in 2010 are 15.1% and 11.2%, respectively; 2.1% U.S. and –13.7% non-U.S. for the year 2011; 16.0% U.S. and 16.8% non-U.S. for the year 2012; 32.4% U.S. and 15.3% non-U.S. for the year 2013; 13.7% U.S. and –3.9% non-U.S. for the year 2014; 1.4% U.S. and –5.7% non-U.S. for the year 2015; 12.0% U.S. and 4.5% non-U.S. for the year 2016; 21.8% U.S. and 27.2% non-U.S. for the year 2017; –4.4% U.S. and –14.2% non-U.S. for the year 2018; 27.6% U.S. and 16.5% non-U.S. for 2019 year-to-date. Sources: MSCI, RIMES. 2019 data as of November 30, 2019. Returns in U.S. dollars. Top 50 stocks are the companies with the highest total return in the MSCI ACWI each year. Returns table uses S&P 500 and MSCI ACWI ex USA indexes for U.S. and non-U.S., respectively.

It’s about selecting companies, not indexes. In a year when political pressure has weighed on many U.S. health care companies, Japanese pharmaceutical giant Daiichi Sankyo was one of the top returning stocks. Likewise, Kweichow Moutai, far from a household name outside of China, became the world’s largest spirits company by market value after its stock nearly doubled in 2019 (through November 30).

4. Consider upgrading your bond portfolio

In 2019, the bond market repeatedly sent signals that risks with the potential to derail the global economy are mounting. Central banks around the world have aggressively slashed interest rates in an effort to counter the effects of slowing growth and a painful trade war. Among developed markets, the U.S. has become the exception in a world where negative rates are the strange new normal. And in the U.S. an inverted yield curve warned of the possibility of recession.

At a time when asset prices appear elevated across equity and fixed-income markets, it may be time for investors to think about upgrading their bond portfolios. Given the late-cycle U.S. economy and weakness abroad, core bonds that can help mitigate stock market volatility may be the wise choice for your fixed income allocation.

“The best way to balance a portfolio in uncertain times is to build a strong core bond allocation,” says Mike Gitlin, head of fixed income at Capital Group. “What does that mean? It means holding bonds that will provide not only income, but the other roles of fixed income as well: diversification from equities, capital preservation and inflation protection. That way, no matter what the market environment, fixed income should help portfolio resilience through the balance it can provide.”

Consider what happened during the six equity correction periods of 10% or more since 2010. In each of these periods, core persevered.

Graphic shows a series of bar charts for each of the six recent periods of equity corrections (when equities fell at least 10%) and the performance of the Morningstar Intermediate Core category average and the S&P 500 Index, titled “When you need core most: Cumulative returns (%) during recent market corrections.” For these six periods it shows the bond category outperforming the S&P 500, at times very sharply. These periods included the flash crash in 2010, U.S. debt downgrade in 2011, China slowdown in 2015, oil price shock in 2015-2016, U.S. inflation/rate scare in early 2018 and the global selloff in late 2018. In all periods, the core taxable category returned between –1% and 4%, while the equity index returned between –10% and –20%. Sources: Capital Group, Morningstar, Standard & Poor’s.

5. Don’t let uncertainty derail your long-term investment plan

Sudden and steep market declines can unnerve even the most experienced investors. That is understandable. Worried investors inevitably will be tempted to take action in their portfolios to avoid pain. But while it is not easy, the best course is to keep calm and carry on.

This impulse isn’t confined to periods when stock prices are falling — it’s equally tempting when stocks are rising. Just as some investors are inclined to reduce equity exposure following a market decline, others are reluctant to maintain stock investments during a rising market because they worry that a correction might occur.

Graphic shows a series of bars representing the calendar year total returns for the S&P 500 Index for each calendar year from 2000 through 2019. Each bar also shows the largest intrayear decline for each year. The largest intrayear decline during the 20-year period ranged from –48% (in 2008) to –3% (in 2017) and averaged –15%. Annual total returns during the period ranged from –27% in (2008) to 32% (in 2013) and averaged 7%. The illustration also shows that the ending value of a hypothetical $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 Index on December 31, 1999, would have been $31,471 as of November 30, 2019. Sources: RIMES, Standard & Poor’s. 2019 is as of November 30, 2019. All returns in USD.

But maintaining a well-balanced portfolio may be the best approach in any market environment. Consider that since 1999 the largest intrayear decline in the S&P 500 has averaged 15%, but has ended in positive territory 15 out of 20 calendar years. As a result, a hypothetical initial investment of $10,000 in the stock market, as represented by the S&P 500, would have grown to an ending value of more than $31,000 as of November 30, 2019.

Although volatility can be unnerving, it also can represent further investment opportunity for patient, long-term investors.

Joyce Gordon is an equity portfolio manager at Capital Group with 39 years of investment experience. She holds an MBA and a bachelor’s in business finance from the University of Southern California. 

Darrell Spence is an economist and research director with 27 years of investment experience, all with Capital. He earned a bachelor's degree in economics from Occidental College and is a CFA charterholder.

Mike Gitlin is head of fixed income at Capital Group. He has 25 years of investment industry experience. Before joining Capital in 2015, Mike was head of fixed income and global head of trading for T. Rowe Price. He holds a bachelor's from Colgate University.

Investing outside the United States involves risks, such as currency fluctuations, periods of illiquidity and price volatility, as more fully described in the prospectus. These risks may be heightened in connection with investments in developing countries. Small-company stocks entail additional risks, and they can fluctuate in price more than larger company stocks.

The return of principal for bond funds and for funds with significant underlying bond holdings is not guaranteed. Fund shares are subject to the same interest rate, inflation and credit risks associated with the underlying bond holdings. Lower rated bonds are subject to greater fluctuations in value and risk of loss of income and principal than higher rated bonds.

Standard & Poor’s 500 Composite Index (“Index”) is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates and has been licensed for use by Capital Group. Copyright © 2019 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global, and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part is prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC.

MSCI has not approved, reviewed or produced this report, makes no express or implied warranties or representations and is not liable whatsoever for any data in the report. You may not redistribute the MSCI data or use it as a basis for other indices or investment products.

©2019 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The market indexes are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.

Standard & Poor’s 500 Composite Index is a market capitalization-weighted index based on the results of approximately 500 widely held common stocks.

MSCI ACWI is a free float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted index that is designed to measure equity market results in the global developed and emerging markets, consisting of more than 40 developed and emerging market country indexes.

MSCI World ex USA Index is designed to measure equity market results of developed markets. The index consists of more than 20 developed-market country indexes, excluding the United States.

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