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Where to invest as interest rates decline
Julian Abdey
Justin Toner
Damien McCann
October 20, 2024
Falling interest rates present challenges and opportunities. Could economic growth continue or even accelerate? Or could a crisis knock the economy off its path?
Investors wrestled with similar questions while the Federal Reserve raised rates. Although there were bouts of volatility, a strong consumer and megatrends such as artificial intelligence (AI) powered equity markets to new highs. The S&P 500 Index gained 36.35% for the year ended 30 September.
Bonds, meanwhile, have reasserted their status as income generators and diversifiers, with the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index up 11.57% over the same period.
The lesson? Don’t let uncertainty get in the way of your long-term investment goals. Here are five opportunities to consider as the Fed pivots to interest rate cuts.
1. SMID-cap stocks may be poised for a comeback
Companies with a market capitalisation of $20 billion or lower — so-called SMID-cap stocks — are likely beneficiaries of declining borrowing costs. This is especially true if a healthy economy persists.
"Falling interest rates tend to benefit some SMID-cap companies such as those in the biotechnology sector, and I think there could be a broadening away from a handful of technology stocks,” says Julian Abdey, an equity portfolio manager. “Valuations are attractive right now for SMID-caps, though investors have to be selective.”
The market rally may broaden to SMID-cap stocks
Sources: Capital Group, MSCI. Relative P/E (price to earnings) ratio reflects the ratio between the forward 12-month P/E ratios of the MSCI ACWI SMID Cap Index and the MSCI ACWI Large Cap Index. Annualised standard deviation (based on monthly returns) is a common measure of absolute volatility that tells how returns over time have varied from the mean. A lower number signifies lower volatility. As of 30 September 2024.
There are also SMID-cap companies integral to the AI boom, particularly in the industrials sector, thanks to the intense energy needs of the data centres required to power AI. Hammond Power Solutions, which manufactures dry-type transformers in various sizes that are used in data centers, is one example.
Modine Manufacturing has also benefitted from the build-out of data centres. The company makes chillers, fan walls, coolant distribution units and other systems designed to prevent overheating. Abdey adds: “They have won business with the hyperscalers because their products are considered more energy and water efficient.”
The re-industrialisation of the US and onshoring back to the US of supply chains resonate with Abdey. “For example, Enerpac is viewed as the leader in high pressure hydraulic tools essential for construction and manufacturing. They have an excellent CEO who is focusing on improving returns for shareholders and making small-scale M&A.”
Lower interest rates could encourage more companies to go public as competition for investor cash declines. “The market for IPOs has steadily improved this year, and I expect more companies in the small- to mid-cap size to initiate offerings in 2025.”
2. Falling rates could boost dividend-paying companies
Investors seeking a more defensive portfolio may want to consider dividend-paying stocks, says Justin Toner, portfolio manager.
“Investors have focused less on dividends recently because stocks have jumped so much but dividends historically have been a meaningful contributor to stock market returns.”
Dividends stocks could offer defensive edge
Sources: RIMES, Standard & Poor's. As of 30 September 30, 2024.
Hallmarks of durable dividend-paying stocks include companies that have strong cash flow and prioritise capital allocation. Gilead Sciences, a health care company known for its HIV drug therapies, has shown a commitment to growing its dividend. In addition to its core HIV franchise, the company has also expanded into cancer therapies.
Toner notes that certain commodities companies also tend to focus on capital allocation versus M&A, even as the price for their product jumps. For example, Lundin Mining is viewed as a conservative company that does not borrow heavily to grow its copper mines compared to its peers.
Could Fed rate cuts lead to a housing boom? While mortgage rates have declined from their peak to around 6%, the US is unlikely to revisit the pandemic-era level of less than 3%, according to portfolio manager Cheryl Frank. “I don’t foresee another big housing cycle for a while since most Americans have mortgages well below the current rate.”
Against that backdrop, homeowners are incentivized to repair or improve an existing home rather than move. Rising mortgage rates slowed housing activity post-COVID, and many companies involved in the housing supply chain have experienced weak sales. “As we start to see growth off this low base, some of these companies may do better,” Frank says.
For example, Home Depot CEO Ted Decker said during an earnings call in August that “as [mortgage] rates head down towards 6%, we would expect to see some activity,” when asked at what level mortgage rates need to be to drive the company’s business higher.
Meanwhile, Carrier Global, known for its HVAC products, reported increased revenue and margin expansion during its most recent second quarter earnings. Building materials company TopBuild has similarly continued to grow its business.
3. Economic tailwinds support corporate and high-yield bonds
Bonds issued by companies across the ratings spectrum offer solid income potential. What’s more, default rates are likely to remain low and bond prices could appreciate as the Fed lowers rates.
Companies have broadly reported solid earnings, and their debt levels are reasonable, says Damien McCann, fixed income portfolio manager.
Many companies, particularly those rated high yield, locked in low borrowing costs during the pandemic when rates were near zero. They have subsequently operated their businesses as if the economy could slow as the Fed raises rates, with several upgraded to investment grade over the past year. As a result, the default rate expectations for both investment-grade and high-yield bonds are low.
“Credit fundamentals remain stable, and valuations are where’d I expect them to be in an environment where the outlook for growth is positive,” McCann says. Although the optimism is largely reflected in bond prices, investors can still benefit from the higher yields offered by corporate investment-grade and high-yield bonds compared to U.S. Treasuries.
Starting yields have been a good indicator of long-term return expectations. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Index, a widely used benchmark for investment-grade bonds (rated BBB/Baa and above), yielded 4.5% as of October 10, 2024. The Bloomberg U.S. Corporate High Yield Index, a broad representation of high-yield bonds, yielded 7.25%.
4. Long live the 60/40 portfolio
Whether the calm before the storm or clear skies ahead, the Fed’s rate cutting cycle is a good time for investors to align their portfolios with their long-term goals.
The classic 60% equities and 40% bonds portfolio has rebounded after a rough 2022, when equities and stocks both declined amid rate hikes to combat inflation. While a balanced allocation may shift closer to 65/35, whatever blend investors agree on is intended to generate solid returns while minimising risks.
Rates are falling. How markets fare depends on the economy
Sources: Capital Group, Bloomberg Index Services Ltd., Morningstar, Standard & Poor's. Return calculations reflect annualised total returns over periods in which the US Federal Reserve had stopped raising rates and began to actively cut rates, measured from the peak US Federal Funds rate target to the lowest Federal Funds rate target for each cycle. Specific easing cycles include August 1984 to August 1986 (non-recessionary), May 1989 to September 1992 (recessionary), February 1995 to January 1996 (non-recessionary), March 1997 to November 1998 (non-recessionary), May 2000 to June 2003 (recessionary), June 2006 to December 2008 (recessionary), and December 2018 to March 2020 (recessionary). 60:40 returns are represented by the weighted average returns between a theoretical 60% allocation to the S&P 500 Index and a 40% allocation to the Bloomberg US Aggregate Index. Cash returns are represented by the average investment rate of 3-month US Treasury Bills. As of 30 September 2024.
Now that inflation is closer to the Fed’s 2% target, officials have more flexibility to lower rates to find the neutral policy rate that neither restricts nor stimulates economic growth, says John Queen, fixed income portfolio manager.
With bonds offering higher income potential today, Queen believes investors may be able to take on less risk while still meeting their return expectations. Additionally, should growth deteriorate markedly, it is reasonable to expect a high-quality bond fund to offer diversification benefits as the Fed would likely swoop in and cut rates beyond the current market forecast.
5. Money market funds may lose their luster
The spectacular rise of assets in money market funds has been well-documented. Total money market fund assets as calculated by the Investment Company Institute stood at $6.47 trillion as of 10 October. But now that the Fed has lowered interest rates, investors may want to weigh other options. That’s because cash returns for money market funds are expected to decline to below 3% in 2025 — a level that generally leaves investors looking elsewhere for stronger return potential.
Queen doesn’t want investors to turn a blind eye to risks, however. A balanced investment strategy isn’t just about deciding how much to allocate to equity or bonds. The risk-reward potential for stocks and bonds varies, so it’s important to know which specific company or security is in a portfolio.
“I prefer to take a long-term and flexible approach to investing. This means being mindful of valuations and adjusting my investments over time depending on where our analysts and portfolio managers see value. Not every idea is a great investment, but The Capital SystemTM allows for a lonely investment idea to shine,” Queen says.
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