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Germany’s surprising equity market: look past the macro gloom
Beth Beckett
2025年1月31日
Coming into 2025, gloom around Germany’s economic outlook seems almost universal. Consensus expects yet another year of stagnation, which – if true – would mean the economy will not have grown meaningfully in six years. This bearishness primarily relates to fears of ongoing deindustrialisation amid weakening demand for Germany’s key exports.
From a broader macro perspective, Capital Group economist Beth Beckett’s view is that deindustrialisation will not be as bad as feared. In any case, however, highlighting the dislocation between sentiment on the macro and in markets, earnings expectations for the DAX this year outpace all other European countries.
Consensus expects earnings per share (EPS) to grow by 10.5% in 2025, just behind the 12.5% predicted for the S&P 500. Germany’s stock market was also remarkably resilient last year, when domestic conditions were no better. Since the start of 2024, total returns have risen almost 30% in local currency terms, in line with the S&P 500 and well ahead of other major European equity benchmarks.
Consensus 2025 EPS estimates (%, year-on-year)
Past results are not a guarantee of future results
Data as at 17 January 2025, S&P as at 21 January 2025. Source: Bloomberg
Among the reasons for this strength, Germany’s equity market has considerable international exposure, which means stronger demand from abroad and a weaker euro were bigger drivers of equities than sluggish domestic conditions.
Second, mirroring patterns we have seen elsewhere, a small number of stocks did very well in 2024: SAP in particular – up by 90% – accounted for nearly 40% of the gains in the overall index. Six other stocks – making up Germany’s own ‘magnificent 7’ – also had very good years, including Rheinmetall and Siemens Energy.
Looking to 2025, Beckett’s view is that this DAX resilience may continue but beyond ongoing strength in ‘magnificent 7’ names, the market is also well placed to benefit from a global rotation out of growth.
There are early signs a shift into value is under way and this looks to have further to run, which should favour other, lower-rated parts of the DAX and broaden overall returns. This should place Germany in a strong regional position among European equities, ahead of the UK and France.
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