Outlook

Stock market outlook: AI leads a broadening market

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Solid U.S. economic growth provides a constructive environment for stocks.
  • Companies connected to the AI build-out generate opportunity beyond the tech sector.
  • Select opportunities are surfacing across dividend payers and small caps.

Clear tailwinds are gathering behind equity markets, providing an upbeat outlook for stocks in 2025. The U.S. economy remains strong, boosted by healthy labor markets, surging business investment and strong profit growth. The U.S. Federal Reserve and other major central banks have initiated an interest rate cutting cycle, providing an additional tailwind for financial assets.

 

Against this backdrop, markets enter 2025 amid a post-election rally in the U.S., as investors focus on business-friendly initiatives of the incoming Trump administration. And while advances in artificial intelligence continue to get most of the headlines, participation in the market rally has quietly broadened across industrials, utilities, health care and other sectors, as well as small-cap companies.

 

“Valuations generally are quite elevated,” says Julian Abdey, an equity portfolio manager for The Growth Fund of America® and SMALLCAP World Fund®. “So I’ve been trying to strike a balance in portfolios, looking for exposure to leading companies in well recognized areas like AI, but also seeking opportunities in less scrutinized areas of the market.”

A mix of opportunities and risks

 

Elevated valuations aren’t the only risk investors must consider in 2025. Sluggish economies in Europe and China could weigh on prospects for some companies, and ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East could agitate markets.

 

President-elect Trump’s priorities, while generally well received by investors, may include a mix of tailwinds and headwinds. On the plus side are proposals for tax cuts, increased defense spending and deregulation across a range of businesses, including banks, as well as energy, aerospace and health care companies.

“Trumponomics” could produce tailwinds and headwinds across the economy

Source: Capital Group. As of November 30, 2024. Examples listed are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent investment recommendations.